地缘冲突下全球粮食危机的传导效应与中国因应之策  

Transmission Effects of Global Food Crisis Under Geopolitical Conflicts and China’s Strategies in Response

作　　者：蒋家敏 魏梦升 JIANG Jiamin;WEI Mengsheng

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院,江苏南京210023 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期35-44,共10页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出,全方位夯实粮食安全根基。在地缘冲突不断加剧背景下,以俄乌冲突为切入点,构建俄乌冲突下粮食危机的生成逻辑,分析其传导效应,把握粮食供求结构性矛盾的内在机理,从而探索保障中国粮食安全的路径。研究表明:地缘冲突导致的粮食危机实质反映出全球粮食供求的结构性矛盾,在短期内俄乌冲突直接导致全球粮食价格上涨,随后传导至化肥和能源市场,间接推高粮食价格。俄乌冲突的持续发酵会引发更多外溢风险,一方面负向影响全球粮食产业链稳定,另一方面加剧中国粮食供给与市场压力,推高农资成本,同时增加中国贸易政策制定难度和风险。据此,提出保障中国粮食安全的4条路径:一是构建粮食进口多元化格局;二是完善中国粮食安全监测预警体系;三是健全粮食产业财政支持政策;四是畅通粮食流通内部循环。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the comprehensive consolidation of the foundations of food security.Against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts,this study uses the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a starting point to construct the logic of food crisis formation under such conflicts,analyze its transmission effects,and understand the internal mechanisms of structural contradictions in food supply and demand so as to explore strategies to ensure China’s food security.The study reveals that the food crises caused by geopolitical conflicts reflect the structural contradictions between global food supply and demand.In the short term,the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly leads to a rise in global food prices,which is then transmitted to the fertiliser and energy markets,indirectly increasing food costs.The ongoing fermentation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to trigger more spillover risks,negatively affecting the stability of the global food supply chain and exacerbating pressures on China’s food supply and market,increasing the cost of agricultural inputs and complicating the formulation and risk of trade policies.Accordingly,four pathways are proposed to secure China’s food security:1)building a diversified pattern of food imports;2)improving China's food security monitoring and early warning systems;3)enhancing fiscal support policies for the food industry;4)facilitating the internal circulation of the food supply chain.

关 键 词：粮食危机 传导效应 地缘冲突 俄乌冲突 中国粮食安全 

分 类 号：F325[经济管理—产业经济]