土地流转、农业规模经营与农业碳排放——基于土地流转政策的准自然实验  

Land Transfer,Agricultural Scale Management and Agricultural Carbon Emissions--Quasinatural Experiments Based on Land Transfer Policy

作　　者：操小娟[1] 靳婷 CAO Xiaojuan;JIN Ting

机构地区：[1]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院/中国发展战略与规划研究院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期153-163,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：自然资源部重大课题项目“主体功能区自然资源配套政策研究”(GHGZ191215-01)。

摘　　要：土地流转是解决农村土地问题、实现我国农业现代化发展的重大农业变革。在“碳达峰、碳中和”的碳排放格局下,土地流转政策被视为推动农业低碳绿色发展的重要举措。现有研究指出土地流转已具备提升农业绿色效益的潜力,但并未深入探究土地流转政策实施对农业碳排放产生的影响。基于2007−2020年中国省级面板数据,通过构建准自然实验,实证分析土地流转政策实施对农业碳排放的影响机制及中介路径。研究表明:(1)基于连续型DID模型的估计结果表明,土地流转政策对农业碳排放具有一定抑制性作用;(2)影响机制分析表明,农业规模经营在政策实施过程中承担部分中介作用,能够有效实现农业减排目标;(3)地区异质性分析表明,不同地区间土地流转政策的实施结果存在差异,其中,东北、中部以及西部地区的碳减排效果均较为明显,而东部地区缺乏显著减排效应。为此,应持续支持并推广土地流转,进一步推进农业规模化经营,采取不同地方性流转政策满足各地差异化需求。Land transfer is a major agricultural reform to address rural land problem and achieve modernization of agriculture in China.Under the carbon emission pattern of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”,land transfer policy is regarded as an important measure to promote the low-carbon and green development of agriculture.Existing studies have pointed out that land transfer has the potential to enhance the green benefits of agriculture,but they have not delved into the impact of land transfer policy implementation on agricultural carbon emissions.Based on provincial panel data from 2007 to 2020 in China,this paper empirically analyses the impact mechanism and mediation path of land transfer policy implementation on agricultural carbon emissions through constructing a quasi-natural experiment.The study shows that estimation results based on the continuous DID model indicate that the land transfer policy has a certain inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions.The analysis of the impact mechanism reveals that agricultural scale management assumes part of the intermediary role in the process of policy implementation,effectively achieving the goal of agricultural emission reduction.The analysis of regional heterogeneity demonstrates differences in the results of land transfer policies implementation among different regions,with noticeable carbon reduction effects in the Northeast,Central,and Western regions,while the Eastern region lacks significant emission reduction effects.For this reason,we should continue to support and promote land transfer,further promote large-scale agricultural management,and adopt localized transfer policies to meet the diverse needs of different regions.

关 键 词：土地流转 农业规模经营 农业碳排放 政策效应 

分 类 号：F320.3[经济管理—产业经济]