需求结构变迁与中国产业结构的动态演进——兼论中国的“去工业化”问题  

The Change of Demand Structure and the Dynamic Evolution of Industrial Structure in China——On China's Deindustrialization Issues

作　　者：潘文卿[1,2] 李泽怡 郝远航 Wenqing Pan;Zeyi Li;Yuanhang Hao(School of Economics&Management,Tsinghua University;National Center for Economic Research at Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院经济系 [2]清华大学中国经济研究中心 [3]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2024年第2期260-291,共32页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(项目号:72173071);国家自然科学基金重点项目(项目号:72133002)的资助。

摘　　要：本研究集中讨论最终需求结构的变迁是如何影响中国产业结构动态演进的。本文基于非竞争投入产出表构建产业结构变动的LMDI因素分解模型,实证分析了1997—2018年长周期以及1997—2008年与2008—2018年两个短周期中国产业结构变动的主要影响因素。研究发现,无论是长周期还是两个短周期,只有“需求模式”变动带动的产业结构变动方向与三次产业结构实际变动的方向完全一致,表明两类最终需求结构的变化是中国产业结构变化最为重要的影响因素,而在两类需求结构中,各最终需求项产业构成的变动对产业结构变动的影响力要比最终需求结构变动的影响力更大一些。进一步分析表明,在各最终需求项产业构成变动的影响中,又以国内消费的产业构成变动影响最大,国内投资次之,中间品与最终品出口的影响最小。在未来国内消费越来越成为中国经济发展主要驱动力的情况下,第三产业增加值比重的上升将是一个长期的发展趋势,但适度扩大最终需求中的投资以及出口的份额可一定程度地延缓第二产业,尤其是制造业比重“过早、过快”的下降趋势。This study mainly discusses how the change of final demand structure affects the dynamic evolution of the industrial structure in China.Based on the inputoutput analysis,an LMDI decomposition model is constructed,and the main factors that influence the change of industrial structure in China during a long period(1997—2018),as well as two short periods(1997—2008 and 2008—2018),are analyzed from an empirical point of view.The study found that both in the long period and two short periods,only the direction of industrial structural change induced by the change of‘demand mode’is highly consistent with that of the three industrial structures on the supply side,which indicates the changes in the two specific aspects of final demand are the principal factors to the change of industrial structure in China.In the structure of the two specific demands,the change of industry structure in final demand plays a more significant role than that of the overall structural change.From a further analysis,among all variations of final demand,the domestic consumption contributes the greatest impact,and domestic investment follows,but the exports of intermediate goods and final goods play the least significant role.With a trend that domestic consumption is increasingly becoming the main driving force of China's economic development,the increasing proportion of China's tertiary industry's value added will be a long-term development trend.And moderately expanding the scale of investment and export in final demand can postpone the decreasing trend in the share of secondary industry in China's economy,especially the‘too early and too fast’declining trend of manufacturing.

关 键 词：产业结构 需求结构 投入产出分析 LMDI分解法 去工业化 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F424