基本养老保险基金:收支平衡、基金积累与资本收益  

The Basic Pension Fund:Fund Accumulation of Balance of Payments and Capital Gains

作　　者：周文渊 张晓奇 Zhou Wenyuan;Zhang Xiaoqi

机构地区：[1]武汉大学董辅礽经济社会发展研究院 [2]中国社科院大学

出　　处：《财经科学》2024年第6期116-129,共14页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：在城镇职工基本养老保险基金面临较大收支缺口压力之际,如何去实现基金收支平衡成为政策制定者和广大居民利益相关的问题。替代率下降会影响养老金收付人福利,提高缴费率则可能影响长期增长率。本文构建一个三期OLG模型,探究缴费率、国资划转、基本养老保险基金市场化运营等政策对于缓解基本养老保险基金收支缺口的影响。研究发现,国有资本划转基本养老保险基金,如果容许部分资本经由市场化运营以获取更高收益,将有助于缓解缴费率、替代率与长期经济增长率之间的潜在冲突,更好地实现基本养老保险基金收支平衡,这一结论凸显国有资本划转基本养老保险基金和基金市场化运作的重要性,为推动基本养老保险基金从收入端实现收支平衡提供新的路径和可能性。At a time when the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers is under pressure from a large shortfall in revenues and expenditures,how to achieve a balance between the fund's revenues and expenditures has become an issue of interest to policymakers and the general population.A decline in the replacement rate will affect the welfare of pensioners and payers,while an increase in the contribution rate may affect the long-term growth rate.This paper constructs a three-period OLG model to investigate the impact of policies such as contribution rate,transfer of state capital,and market-based operation of the basic pension fund on alleviating the gap between income and expenditure of the basic pension fund.It is found that the transfer of state—owned capital to the basic pension insurance fund,if part of the capital is allowed to be operated through marketisation in order to obtain a higher return,will help to alleviate the potential conflict between the contribution rate,the replacement rate and the long-run economic growth rate,and better realise the balance of income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance fund,and this conclusion highlights the importance of the transfer of state-owned capital to the basic pension insurance fund and the marketisation of the fund,which will contribute to the promotion of the basic pension insurance fund from the income side to achieve the balance of income and expenditure.

关 键 词：国有资本划转 资本回报率 收支平衡 

分 类 号：F840.67[经济管理—保险]