动员困境与拜登政府时期美国印太盟伴体系的调整  

The Mobilization Dilemma and the Adjustment of the U.S.Indo-Pacific Alliances and Partnerships under the Biden Administration

作　　者：夏方波 聂正楠 Xia Fangbo;Nie Zhengnan(School of International Relations and Diplomacy,Beijing Foreign Studies University;Center for International Security and Strategy,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院 [2]清华大学战略与安全研究中心

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2024年第3期25-54,156,共31页Journal of International Relations

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金(项目编号:2023M732014)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：美国政府提出“印太”概念,广泛构建小多边安全合作机制展现了明确的战略意图。尽管美国想方设法构建和调整围堵中国的印太盟伴体系,但是亚太地区复杂的地缘形势、纵横交错的多边主义制度建制以及中国经略周边的战略举措让美国构建的制华联盟面临严重的动员困境。美国盟伴体系调整的手段、过程与特征所体现的“动员困境”在三个维度上阻碍了美国“印太”政策的效度。美国战略资源分散化难以提供足够的动员资源,美国印太盟伴对华的利益关系与威胁认知存在分歧,无法为动员提供集体认同支撑,中国经略周边战略布局制约了美国动员制衡联盟的政治机会。美国基于盟伴体系的小多边机制扩张看似为其缓解动员困境、修补传统“轴辐”体系的不足提供了出路,却也塑造了盟伴体系调整的碎片化特征,直接威胁了亚太地区安全格局。美国的“零和式”战略协调名义上致力于维护“基于规则的国际秩序”,但实际上威胁的是亚太国家长期实践所构造的地区多边主义秩序,导致亚太地区陷入“繁而不荣”的失序状态。The strategic intentions of the U.S.government's proposal of the"Indo-Pacific"concept and the extensive construction of minilateral security cooperation mechanisms are overt.Although the U.S.has tried to construct and adjust the system of alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to confront the China challenge,the complex geopolitical situation in the Asia-Pacific region,the intertwined multilateralism systems,and China's strategic management of relations with neighboring countries have made it attempts beset with difficulties,represented by a profound"mobilization dilemma."The mobilization dilemma embodied in the means,process and characteristics of the adjustment of the U.S.Indo-Pacific system of alliances and partnerships has impeded the effectiveness of the U.S."Indo-Pacific"policy in three dimensions:first,the dispersion of strategic resources has made it difficult to provide sufficient mobilization resources;second,the U.S.'allies and partners in Indo-Pacific have divergent interests and threat perceptions of China,which cannot provide collective identity support for mobilization;and third,China's strategic management of relations with neighboring countries constrains Washington's political opportunities to mobilize alliances.The expansion of the Indo-Pacific minilaterals seems to provide a way out for the U.S.to alleviate the mobilization dilemma and repair the deficiencies of the traditional Hub-and-Spokes alliance system,but it also shapes the fragmentation of the system(complexity of issues,overlapping networks,and competing mechanisms),which directly threatens the Asia-Pacific region's security.The U.S.zero-sum strategic coordination is nominally committed to the"rules-based international order,"but in reality,it is blocking the regional multilateralism constructed and practiced by the Asia-Pacific countries for the last decades,which furthur leads to the disorder in the region.

关 键 词：美国印太盟伴体系 小多边安全机制 动员困境 地区安全 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]