基于CIR风速仿真模型的含风能发电系统充裕度评估  

Adequacy evaluation of power generation system with wind energy based on CIR wind speed simulation model

作　　者：李书璇 缪书唯 LI Shuxuan;MIAO Shuwei(College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,The Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第6期773-781,共9页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

摘　　要：将CIR(Cox-Ingersoll-Ross)模型应用于风速仿真,提出CIR风速仿真模型和仿真时间步长可变的含风能发电系统充裕度评估方法,应用权重系数法将含风能发电系统的缺电时间期望、电量不足期望和缺电频率聚合为综合充裕度指标,并定义综合带负荷能力,用于评价风电场的容量可信度。收集实测风速样本验证CIR风速仿真模型,评估含风能IEEE-RTS(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers-request to send)发电系统充裕度并计算综合带负荷能力,仿真数据表明:CIR风速仿真模型能产生仿真时间步长可变的仿真风速样本,随着仿真时间步长的改变,缺电频率变化幅度较大,但综合带负荷能力变化幅度较小,所提方法能较准确评估不同仿真时间步长下含风能发电系统充裕度。This paper applies the CIR(Cox-Ingersoll-Ross)model to wind speed simulation,and proposes a CIR wind speed simulation model and an abundance evaluation method with variable simulation time step of wind power generation system.The power shortage time expectation,power shortage expectation and power shortage frequency of power generation system containing wind energy are aggregated into a comprehensive adequacy index by weight coefficient method,and the comprehensive equivalent load-carrying capability is defined to evaluate the capacity reliability of wind farms.The measured wind speed samples are collected to verify the CIR wind speed simulation model,evaluate the adequacy of IEEE-RTS(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers-request to send)power generation system containing wind energy,and calculate the comprehensive equivalent load-carrying capability.The simulation data show that the CIR wind speed simulation model can generate simulated wind speed samples with variable simulation time step,and the power shortage frequency fluctuates greatly with the change of simulation time step,but the variation range of the comprehensive load capacity is small.The proposed method can accurately evaluate the sufficiency of the wind power generation system under different simulation time steps.

关 键 词：风电场 风速仿真 充裕度评估 仿真时间步长 容量可信度 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]