“双碳”时期青海省风速及风能资源潜力评估  

Assessment of wind speed and power potential in Qinghai Province during the“double carbon”period

作　　者：姜涵 姜彤 苏布达 高妙妮 段美霞 徐润宏 姜汕 王东方 JIANG Han;JIANG Tong;SU Buda;GAO Miaoni;DUAN Meixia;XU Runhong;JIANG Shan;WANG Dongfang(Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographic Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Research Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of Geographical Sciences,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气候与环境治理研究院,江苏南京210044 [3]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2024年第3期1055-1068,共14页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：青海省科学技术厅青海省重点研发与转化计划项目(2022-SF-173)--国家清洁能源产业高地建设资源动态保障与生态环境“权衡”评估技术研发;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX23_1342,KYCX23_1292)资助

摘　　要：风能资源的开发利用是实现“双碳”目标的重要途径。本研究利用1961—2022年逐日风速站点观测资料,选取涵盖七个共享社会经济路径的五个CMIP6气候模式1995—2100年逐日风速数据,构建了青海省1 km水平分辨率的风能资源数据库,并分析该地区1961—2022年、“碳达峰”(2026—2035年)和“碳中和”时期(2056—2065年)风能资源的时空变化趋势。研究发现:(1)1961—2022年,青海省10 m高度年平均风速为3.06 m·s^(-1),风电机轮毂高度所在的100 m高度有效风功率密度为125.14 W·m^(-2),风能可利用天数达167天,风能资源西多东少,柴达木盆地和唐古拉山脉一带尤其是布尔汗布达山脉西部风能资源最丰富;(2)青海省风能资源总体呈减少趋势,风速以2.08%·a^(-1)的速率减小,有效高度风功率密度以1.40%·a^(-1)的速率减少,风能可利用天数以0.88%·a^(-1)的速率缩短;(3)2026—2035年和2056—2065年,青海省风速分别为2.52 m·s^(-1)(2.39~2.63 m·s^(-1))和2.49 m·s^(-1)(2.31~2.59 m·s^(-1)),相较于历史时期,分别减小了3.53%(2.34%~5.24%)和5.71%(5.21%~6.53%),有效风功率密度为50.28 W·m^(-2)(46.17~64.08W·m^(-2))和47.75W·m^(-2)(38.89~54.79W·m^(-2)),降低了10.20%(6.69%~14.91%)和15.79%(14.72%~18.32%),风能可利用天数为114天(105~124天)和111天(99~120天),缩短了7.58%(2.44%~11.05%)和10.73%(8.39%~13.55%);(4)2026—2035年和2056—2065年,相较于高辐射强迫情景(SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5),低辐射强迫情景(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP4-3.4)下,青海省的风速可能高出1.75%和5.16%,风功率密度多5.23%和14.28%,风能可利用天数多3.32%和9.71%。总体而言,青海省西部特别是柴达木盆地和唐古拉山脉一带风能资源储量大、减幅小、降速低,存在较大开发利用潜力。本研究结果为风能资源开发提供理论依据,助推国家新能源产业高质量发展,践行绿色低碳理念。The utilization of wind energy resources is the top priority to achieve the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals”.Based on daily wind speed observation and simulations from 5 CMIP6 models with 7 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,this study constructs a database with 1 km horizontal resolution and analyses the spa-tiotemporal changes of the wind power in Qinghai Province during 1961—2022,“carbon peak”period of 2026—2035 and“carbon neutral”period of 2056—2065.The results show:(1)From 1961 to 2022,the average annu-al 10 m wind speed in Qinghai Province is 3.06 m·s^(-1),the 100 m wind power densities is 125.14 W·m^(-2),and the number of wind energy available days is 167.The wind power decreases gradually from the west to the east.The wind energy resources in Tsaidam Basin and Tanggula Mountains reach the suitable development standard,and the maximum value is in the west of Burhan Budai Mountains;(2)Wind power in Qinghai Province exhib-its a decreasing trend.The reduction speed of 10 m wind speed is 2.08%·a^(-1),the 100 m wind power density is 1.40%·a^(-1) and the available days of wind energy is 0.88%·a^(-1);(3)Compared with the historical period,the 10 m wind speed at is 2.52 m·s^(-1)(2.39~2.63 m·s^(-1))with a decrease of 3.53%(2.34%~5.24%),the wind power density is 50.28 W·m^(-2)(46.17~64.08 W·m^(-2))with a decrease of 10.20%(6.69%~14.91%),and the wind en-ergy available days is 114 days(105~124 days)with a decrease of 7.58%(2.44%~11.05%)from 2026 to 2035.From 2056 to 2065,the wind speed at 10 m is 2.49 m·s^(-1)(2.31~2.59 m·s^(-1))with a decrease of 5.71%(5.21%~6.53%),the wind power density is 47.75 W·m^(-2)(38.89~54.79 W·m^(-2))with a decrease of 15.79%(14.72%~18.32%),and the wind energy available days is 111 days(99~120 days)with a decrease of 10.73%(8.39%~13.55%);(4)From 2026 to 2035 and 2056 to 2065,the 10 m wind speed at low emission scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6 and SSP4-3.4)is 1.75%and 5.16%higher than high emission scenarios(SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5),the 100 m wind power density is 5.

关 键 词：风能资源 “双碳”时期 时空变化 CMIP6 青海省 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]