考虑多风险因素的北极东北航道航线规划  

Arctic northeast passage route planning considering multiple risk factors

作　　者：章文俊[1,2] 王昱 牟聪瑞 周翔宇 孟祥坤[1,2] 杨雪 吴中岱 ZHANG Wenjun;WANG Yu;MU Congrui;ZHOU Xiangyu;MENG Xiangkun;YANG Xue;WU Zhongdai(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;Dalian Key Laboratory of Safety&Security Technology for Autonomous Shipping,Dalian 116026,China;Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200135,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连市自主航运安全技术重点实验室,辽宁大连116026 [3]上海船舶运输科学研究所有限公司,上海200135

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2024年第2期1-10,共10页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2801005);国家自然科学基金青年项目(52201408,52301416);辽宁省中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2023JH6/100100055);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132023144,3132023130)

摘　　要：为保障船舶极地航行的安全性和经济性,提出一种综合考虑水深、海冰密集度及海冰厚度等多风险因素的航线规划方法。首先,对于全局航线规划,采用极地操作限制评估风险指数系统(POLARIS)计算北极安全水深区域的风险指数结果(RIO),将风险等级重新分类赋值为风险成本,采用地理信息系统(GIS)最低成本路径分析法生成的安全水深区域最低风险成本航线作为全局推荐航线。其次,提取航线各风险等级的栅格比例进行航线可行性评估。最后,考虑船舶航行时复杂多变冰情条件下船冰碰撞风险,结合国际船级社协会(IACS)极地级船舶操作限制对照表,针对全局航线沿途大于极地操作限制船舶航行最大海冰厚度的区域,采用融合改进A*与动态窗口法(DWA)进行局部航线规划。对采取不同风险因素的全局及局部航线比较分析表明:本文规划的全局航线在避免搁浅的同时航行风险最低;船舶沿局部规划航线航行时能够针对阻塞航道的新生冰进行避碰。In order to ensure the safety and economy of ship polar navigation,a route planning method that comprehensive⁃ly considered multiple risk factors such as water depth,sea ice density and sea ice thickness was proposed.Firstly,for the global route planning,the polar operational limit assess⁃ment risk indexing system(POLARIS)was adopted to calcu⁃late the risk index outcome(RIO)of the Arctic safe water depth region,thereby reclassifying the risk grade and assig⁃ning it to risk cost.The lowest risk cost route in the safe water depth region was generated by geographic information system(GIS)lowest cost path analysis method and was recommen⁃ded as the global route.Secondly,the grid proportion of each risk level was extracted to evaluate the feasibility of the route.Finally,for the sea ice area along the global route that was larger than the maximum ice thickness of the International As⁃sociation of Classification Societies(IACS)polar class ship operating restrictions comparison table,the local route plan⁃ning was carried out by combining with the improved A∗and the dynamic window approach(DWA),thereby considering the risk of ship⁃ice collision under complex and variable ice conditions.The comparison of global and local routes with dif⁃ferent risk factors shows that the global routes planned in this paper have the lowest risk with grounding avoidance,in addi⁃tion that the ship can make collision⁃avoidance decision against the new ice blocking the channel when sailing along the local planned route.

关 键 词：北极东北航道 多风险因素 航线规划 极地操作限制评估风险指数系统(POLARIS) 

分 类 号：U697.33[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U698[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]