考虑风光出力不确定性的新能源基地直流外送随机规划方法研究  

Stochastic Planning Method for UHVDC Transmission of Renewable Energy Power Base Considering Wind and Photovoltaic Output Uncertainties

作　　者：李晖 刘栋 秦继朔 韩晓男 赵鹏飞[2] 孙一丁 孙英云[2] LI Hui;LIU Dong;QIN Jishuo;HAN Xiaonan;ZHAO Pengfei;SUN Yiding;SUN Yingyun(State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Changping District,Beijing 102209,China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国网经济技术研究院有限公司,北京市昌平区102209 [2]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2024年第7期2795-2803,I0049,共10页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部管理科技项目(5100-202356026A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：加快推进沙漠、戈壁、荒漠地区大型风电太阳能发电基地规划与建设,是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要举措。大规模新能源基地电力外送呈现强随机性、波动性特征,跨区送电特性与传统直流相比发生较大变化,亟需研究适用于不确定性环境的直流外送输电曲线规划方法。考虑了新能源基地风电、光伏出力不确定性对电力外送的影响,针对新能源基地、直流通道和受端电网的运行特性分别建模,提出了基于场景分析法的新能源基地直流外送随机规划方法。算例结果表明,该方法得到的直流输电曲线可应对不同新能源出力场景下的直流外送需求,验证了所提方法的有效性。Accelerating the planning and construction of large-scale wind and solar energy bases in China's Gobi and desert areas is an important measure to achieve the“Carbon Peak”and“Carbon Neutrality”targets.Ultra-high Voltage Direct Current(UHVDC)power transmission of large-scale renewable energy power base presents strong stochasticity and volatility characteristics.The characteristics of cross-area power transmission have changed greatly compared with traditional UHVDC transmission.There is an urgent need to study UHVDC transmission curve planning methods suitable for uncertain environments.This paper considers the impact of uncertainties of wind power and photovoltaic(PV)output of renewable energy power base with UHVDC transmission.The operational characteristics of a renewable energy power base,UHVDC transmission,and regional network are modeled separately,and a stochastic planning method for UHVDC transmission based on scenario analysis is proposed.The results show that the transmission curve obtained by this paper can cover the transmission demand under different renewable energy output scenarios,verifying the proposed method's effectiveness.

关 键 词：随机规划 新能源基地 直流外送 不确定性 输电曲线 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]