若羌南部山区崩塌灾害易发性评价——基于相关性分析的信息量模型  

Risk Assessment of Collapse Disasters in the Southern Mountainous Areas of Ruoqiang County-an Information Quantity Model Based on Correlation Analysis

作　　者：陈君 马立龙 谢万兵 Chen Jun;Ma Lilong;XieWanbing(The Third Geological Brigade of Xinjiang Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Korla,Xinjiang 841000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地质矿产勘查开发局第三地质大队,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《新疆地质》2024年第2期300-306,共7页Xinjiang Geology

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区地质矿产勘查开发局第三地质大队自然资源科技创新研究项目(XJDKJSD2020-02);新疆维吾尔自治区地质局地质勘查项目(XGMB202240)联合资助。

摘　　要：若羌县南部山区地质灾害研究程度较低,区域防灾减灾工作面临重大挑战。通过对若羌县南部山区特别是阿尔金山地区崩塌灾害的形成机理、成灾模式、影响因素等进行分析。对选取的10个因子中贡献程度较低的坡面曲率和地貌类型两项因子进行删除,保留剩余的坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、工程地质岩组类型、NDVI划分为基本因素,将道路距离、水系距离、断层距离等8个因子作为评价指标,选取栅格单元为基础评价单元进行信息量计算,构建信息量模型对研究区崩塌灾害易发性进行评价与区划。结果表明:(1)区域内划分为高、中、低、非易发区,其中高易发区总面积391.48 km^(2),占若羌县总面积的0.20%,占阿尔金山区面积的35%,共发育崩塌95处;中易发区总面积16 375.14 km^(2),占若羌县总面积的8.26%,占阿尔金山区面积的15%,共发育崩塌11处;低易发区总面积31 455.63km^(2),占若羌县总面积的15.88%,占阿尔金山区的25%,共发育崩塌灾害5处;非易发区总面积149 906.50 km^(2),占若羌县总面积的75.66%,占阿尔金山区的25%;(2)ROC曲线以下面积为0.931,说明易发性预测结果良好;(3)人类工程活动(以矿山道路建设、开发等)对崩塌灾害易发性影响最明显,距离道路小于200 m区域为地质灾害易发区,距离河流小于100 m区域易发生地质灾害,坡度在40°~50°区域地质灾害发生较明显,地形起伏度较大区域为地质灾害高发区,工程地质岩组类型为坚硬-较坚硬块状、较坚硬软弱、软弱互层状以砂岩、砾岩、泥岩为主的碎屑岩岩组及坚硬-较坚硬片状以片岩为主变质岩岩组,对地质灾害发生具一定影响。坡向、断层及NDVI在本次工作区对地质灾害影响相对较小。评价结果可为区内危险性、风险评价及区划等方面提供理论依据,为当地防灾减灾管理、地质灾害风险管控、国土空间规划和用途管制、新农村和重点工The southern mountainous area of Ruoqiang County,especially the Altun Mountain area,is an important gathering place for mineral veins in Ruoqiang County and even the entire Bazhou region.It is a bridgehead and strategic location for the new round of local strategic mining operations,which has made it an important area for the development of collapse disasters,seriously threatening the safety of local people's lives and property,and seriously hindering the development of the new round of strategic mining operations in this area.At present,due to the low level of research on geological hazards in the region,disaster prevention and reduction work is facing significant challenges.On the basis of the 2023 Central Finance funded project“Geological Disaster Risk Investigation and Evaluation Project in Ruoqiang County”,this article analyzes the formation mechanism,disaster mode,and influencing factors of collapse disasters in the southern mountainous areas of Ruoqiang County,especially in the Altun Mountains area.Based on the Pearson correlation coefficient method,influential factors with strong correlation are selected,and the contribution comparison method-Correlation Attribute Evaluation(CAE)is used to compare the contribution of the influencing factors.After deleting the two factors of slope curvature and landform type with lower contribution in the selected 10 factors,the remaining slope,aspect,terrain undulation,engineering geological rock group type,and NDVI are retained as basic factors.Road distance,water level,and NDVI are divided into basic factors.Eight factors such as system distance and fault distance are used as evaluation indicators,and grid units are selected as the basic evaluation units for information content calculation.An information content model is constructed to evaluate and zoning the susceptibility of collapse disasters in the study area.The results show that:(1)the region is divided into high,medium,low,and non prone areas,with a total area of 391.48 km2 in high prone areas,accounting for

关 键 词：阿尔金山 崩塌 影响因素 评价指标 信息量 易发性评价 风险管控 

分 类 号：P642.21[天文地球—工程地质学]