双循环背景下中国主要食物进口贸易安全格局与态势  

Security pattern and trend of import trade of major food in China in the context of dual circulation

作　　者：陈枫 唐丽霞[1] 黄运伟 CHEN Feng;TANG Lixia;HUANG Yunwei(College of Humanities and Development,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;State Key Laboratory of Complex&Critical Software Environment,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100193 [2]北京航空航天大学复杂关键软件环境全国重点实验室,北京100191

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第5期960-974,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院网信专项(CAS-WX2023SF-0102)。

摘　　要：[目的]食物安全关乎国计民生,构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是中国新发展阶段保障食物安全的重要举措。[方法]本文基于2014-2022年中国谷物,肉类及其副产品,蛋、奶等产品,水产品,糖类,食用油料,蔬菜以及水果8类主要食物进口贸易数据,从进口贸易需求层面,使用GM(1,1)模型预测2023-2027年主要食物进口贸易规模变化情况,从进口贸易市场现状层面,测算市场集中度(CR4指数、HHI指数)以及进口贸易重心变化,通过灰色关联分析影响主要食物进口贸易额增长率的主要因素,研判进口贸易安全态势,为保障中国食物安全提供建议。[结果](1)中国目前口粮绝对安全能够得到保障,但非口粮食物供给无法完全依靠国内市场得到满足,需要长期通过国际市场来弥补,而除水产品外的主要食物进口贸易均存在一定风险;(2)肉类及其副产品、谷物、糖类进口贸易额增长率波动明显、幅度较大,且对于其他主要食物进口贸易存在较大影响;(3)主要食物进口贸易重心发生了显著变化,俄罗斯以及东南亚、南美洲等新兴市场国家(地区)在中国食物进口结构中的重要性逐渐提升。[结论]通过中国食物进口贸易向“一带一路”、金砖国家等新兴市场的战略调整,贸易稳定性有所提升,然而随着未来中国食物进口需求的持续扩大,要保障进口贸易安全仍需探索更多可持续发展的合作模式。[Objective]Food security is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.Building a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main part and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other is an important measure to ensure food security in China’s new development stage.[Methods]This study is based on data on the import and trade of eight major foods in China from 2014 to 2022,including grains,meat,eggs and milk,aquatic products,sugars,oilseeds(mainly including soybeans),vegetables,and fruits,from the perspective of future import trade demand,used the GM(1,1)model to predict the import trade volume of major food from 2023 to 2027.From the perspective of the current situation of the import trade market,calculated the market concentration ratio(CR4 and HHI indices)and the change of import trade centers,analyzed the main factors affecting the growth rate of the import trade volume of major food through gray correlation analysis,and examined the security situation of import trade,to provide some recommendations for ensuring food security in China.[Results](1)Currently,China’s food security for grains is absolutely guaranteed,but with the current adjustment in residents’dietary structure and the deepening of nutrition and health concepts,the proportion of grain foods in people’s daily food consumption is continuously decreasing.The supply of nongrain foods cannot be fully met by the domestic market alone and needs long-term supplementation through the international market.However,apart from aquatic products,there are certain risks in major food import trades,which affect China’s food security and are not conducive to the operation of the“dual circulation”economic development model.(2)In China’s major food import trades,the growth rates of imports for meat,grains,and sugar showed significant fluctuations,exerting a considerable impact on the import trades of the other five major food categories.(3)There has been a significant shift in the focus of major food im

关 键 词：食物安全 双循环 进口贸易 市场集中度 贸易重心 灰色关联度 中国 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61