中国人口死亡高峰的特征与演化机制  

Future Trends and Mechanisms of the Surge of Deaths in China

作　　者：张震[1] 李强[2] Zhang Zhen;Li Qiang(Institute of Population Research,Fudan University;Fudan Institute on Ageing,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学人口研究所 [2]复旦大学老龄研究院

出　　处：《人口研究》2024年第3期20-34,共15页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“出生性别比转变对人口老龄化的影响研究”(21BRK024);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“中国老年人健康预期寿命的演变特征、模式及未来趋势预测研究”(21YJA840010)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：随着人口老龄化进程的加速,中国将迎来以老年人为主体的人口死亡高峰。数理人口分析显示,人口死亡高峰的演化取决于3个相互交织的人口因素:(1)历史出生数变动对死亡数变化起着主导性作用;(2)存活率提高会扩大老年人口基数进而增加老年死亡数;(3)死亡率下降有削减人口死亡高峰的作用。由于这3个因素在不同时期对不同出生队列和年龄的死亡数的影响不尽相同,因而年龄别死亡数呈现出明显的起伏波动,而年龄合计下各年龄死亡数的波动互有抵消,最终使得总死亡数的变化相对平滑。尽管老年死亡数增长是人口转变的自然结果,但是中国人口死亡高峰来势迅猛、规模庞大,对个人、家庭和社会都将构成严峻挑战,政府和社会各界需要尽早制定积极的应对策略。With the accelerating ageing process of the population,China is facing an unprecedented mortality peak dominated by the older population.Mathematical demography analysis reveals that the evolution of the mortality peak depends on three intertwined demographic factors:(1)historical fertility peaks and troughs play a dominant role in shaping the mortality population,(2)increased survival rates expand the elderly population base,thereby increasing the number of elderly deaths,and(3)period mortality rate declines contribute to reducing the mortality peak.As these three factors have varying effects on different birth cohorts,ages,and periods,age-specific deaths exhibit significant fluctuations.However,when summing up deaths across all ages,the fluctuations at different ages offset each other to some extent,resulting in a relatively smooth trend in the total number of deaths.Although the massive number of deaths among the elderly are a natural outcome of the demographic transition,China's mortality peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale,posing severe challenges to individuals,families,and society as a whole.The government and all sectors of society need to formulate proactive coping strategies as early as possible.

关 键 词：人口转变 人口出生高峰 人口死亡高峰 数理人口学 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]