基于Budyko假设的洛河流域径流变化归因分析  

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Changes in Luo River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

作　　者：李杨千 何海[1] 金双彦[2] 吴志勇[1] LI Yangqian;HE Hai;JIN Shuangyan;WU Zhiyong(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450004,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]黄河水文水资源科学研究院,河南郑州450004

出　　处：《水文》2024年第3期41-46,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFC3201101)。

摘　　要：为探究洛河流域径流演变的主要驱动因子,基于1961—2020年水文、气象和下垫面资料,分析洛河流域水文气象要素变化特征;应用基于Budyko假设的互补法,定量分析了降水、潜在蒸散发和人类活动导致的下垫面改变对径流变化的影响程度,阐明了洛河流域上、中、下游不同地区径流变化的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)1961—2020年,洛河流域径流呈显著减少趋势,突变年份为1986年;降水与潜在蒸散发减少趋势不明显,气温显著增加;1980年后流域植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,土地利用类型也有不同程度的变化。(2)降水与潜在蒸散发变化对洛河流域径流减少的贡献率分别为25.4%和-13.9%,下垫面变化对径流减少的贡献率为88.5%。(3)空间上,植被变化是导致流域中上游地区径流减少的关键因素,水利工程建设和土地利用类型改变是导致下游地区径流减少的关键因素。研究成果可为认识洛河流域径流变化以及水资源开发利用提供参考。This study aims to investigate the primary factors driving the changes in runoff within the Luo River Basin.Using hy-drological,meteorological,and underlying surface data from 1961 to 2020,the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological ele-ments were analyzed in the study area.Employing the complementary relationship method based on the Budyko hypothesis,the im-pacts of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and human-induced alterations to the underlying surfaces on variations in runoff were quantitatively assessed.The analysis reveals that the main influences on runoff changes in different regions of the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Luo River Basin.The results show that:(1)there is a significant decreasing trend in runoff from 1961 to 2020,with a notable inflection point in 1986.While the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration show slight re-ductions,there is a marked increase in temperature.Moreover,vegetative coverage in the basin has been steadily increasing since 1980 with varying degrees of land use changes.(2)The contributions of changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to the reduction in runoff are found to be 25.4%and-13.9%,respectively.Changes in the underlying surfaces account for 88.5%of the reduced runoff.(3)Spatially,vegetation alterations are identified as the key factor contributing to runoff reduction in the up-stream and middle reaches of the basin,while water conservancy projects and land use changes are identified as the primary fac-tors leading to a marked decrease in runoff in the downstream area.The research could provide insights for understanding runoff changes and informing the development and utilization of water resources in the Luo River Basin.

关 键 词：径流变化 Budyko假设 归因分析 洛河流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]