港口物流与进出口贸易关联发展分析——以北部湾港为例  

Analysis of Related Development of Port Logistics and Import&Export Trade--A Case Study of Beibu Gulf Port

作　　者：刘云刚 蒲瑞嫦 方帅 杨啟根 Liu Yungang;Pu Ruichang;Fang Shuai;Yang Qigen(Fangchenggang Vocational and Technical College,Fangchenggang 538000,Guangxi)

机构地区：[1]防城港职业技术学院,广西防城港538000

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第13期10-14,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目(2023KY2080);广西教育厅2024年度职业教育示范特色专业及实训基地项目(防城港职业技术学院现代物流管理),项目编号:桂教办[2024]260号。

摘　　要：文章以北部湾港为研究对象,在分析北部湾港对外贸易和港口物流发展现状的基础上,选取北部湾港2013—2022年的数据,采用灰色关联度分析法和建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,对北部湾港港口物流和进出口贸易之间的关联发展进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期来看,北部湾港港口货物吞吐量与进出口贸易之间有着较为稳定且正向的相关关系,且港口货物吞吐量的增长对进出口贸易促进作用明显,而短期内港口集装箱吞吐量的增长对于进出口贸易的促进作用则不明显。Taking Beibu Gulf Port as the research object,this paper aims to conduct empirical research on the related development between port logistics and import and export trade in Beibu Gulf Port by selecting the data of Beibu Gulf Port from 2013 to 2022,using the grey relational analysis and establishing vector autoregression(VAR)model,based on analyzing the development status of foreign trade and port logistics in Beibu Gulf Port.The results show that,over the long term,there is a relatively stable and positive correlation between cargo throughput and import and export trade of Beibu Gulf Port,and the growth of cargo throughput significantly promotes import and export trade,while the growth of container throughput does not have an obvious impact on promoting import and export trade in the short term.

关 键 词：港口物流 进出口贸易 北部湾港 VAR模型 物资流通 区域经济 

分 类 号：F259.22[经济管理—国民经济] F127