基于MaxEnt模型的科尔沁沙地刺萼龙葵适宜生长区预测  

Prediction of suitable Solanum rostratum growth areas in Horqin Sandy Land based on the Maximum Entropy

作　　者：齐开源 王雪丽 苏雅乐[1] 罗亚勇 孙忠林 熊梅 周立业[1] QI Kaiyuan;WANG Xueli;SU Yale;LUO Yayong;SUN Zhonglin;XIONG Mei;ZHOU Liye(College of Prataculture,Inner Mongolia Minzu University,Tongliao 028000,Inner Mongolia,China;Northwest Institute of Ecological Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古民族大学草业学院,内蒙古通辽028000 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《草业科学》2024年第6期1279-1287,共9页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：内蒙古自治区重点研发和成果转化项目(2022YFDZ0028);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2022MS03060)。

摘　　要：为明确外来入侵植物刺萼龙葵(Solanum rostratum)在科尔沁沙地的适生区分布,利用刺萼龙葵的记录点和19个环境变量,用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS)相结合对分布在科尔沁沙地的刺萼龙葵的地理数据进行分析,预测其适生区,并采用受试者操作特征曲线(ROC)分析法对预测结果进行验证,训练数据和验证数据在特性曲线下的面积值(AUC)分别为0.849和0.950,预测结果较为准确。结果表明,气象因子中最暖月高温、最冷季平均温度、最干月降水量、昼夜温差日均温是影响刺萼龙葵分布的主要环境变量;刺萼龙葵在科尔沁沙地的高适生区约占3.9万km^(2),主要集中分布于科尔沁沙地中部地区。To determine the characteristics of suitable habitats for Solanum rostratum,an alien invasive plant,in Horqin Sandy Land,geographic data matching S.rostratum distribution were analyzed.Suitable habitat requirements were predicted based on recorded S.rostratum locations and 19 environmental variables,using the Maximum Entropy Model and Geographic Information System(ArcGIS).Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis validated the predictions.The areas under the characteristic curve values of the training and validation data were 0.849 and 0.950,respectively,indicating that the prediction results were relatively accurate.The main environmental variables affecting S.rostratum distribution included the highest temperature in the warmest month,the average temperature in the coldest season,the amount of precipitation in the driest month,and the daily average temperature difference between day and night.The most adaptable area for S.rostratum in Horqin Sandy Land spans approximately 39000 km^(2),primarily distributed in the central region.

关 键 词：最大熵模型 环境变量 适生区预测 刺萼龙葵 科尔沁沙地 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]