Uncertainty of the Export VAT Rebate Policy:Measurement and Its Effects  

作　　者：Yanzhe Zhang Helian Xu Xiaokai Shao 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics,Hainan University [2]School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University [3]International Business School,Beijing Foreign Studies University

出　　处：《China Finance and Economic Review》2024年第2期90-111,共22页中国财政与经济研究（英文）

基　　金：Youth Project of the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(723 QN 218);National Natural Science Foundation of China(72103024);the National Social Science Fund of China(22VRC172).

摘　　要：Based on the export VAT rebate rate data from 2004 to 2015,this paper measures the uncertainty of Chinese export VAT rebate policy by using unexpected fluctuation of export VAT rebate rate,and finds that the index varies across products,years and industries.Then,the paper studies the influence of the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy on China’s export growth from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The research results show that this uncertainty reduces the expected profit of export enterprises and their optimal output,and significantly reduces the growth rate of the ordinary export that applies the export VAT rebate method,but it has no impact on the processing export.By decomposing total value of exports,it is found that the growth in the number of ordinary export relationship and average sales decrease with the increase of uncertainty,while the average price growth rate increases slightly,and these effects are only refl ected in the newly entered export relations.The findings suggest that when the uncertainty of export VAT rebate policy is high,enterprises are more cautious about entering the ordinary export market and more likely to adopt a lowquantity-high-price strategy.

关 键 词：export VAT rebate policy uncertainty export growth ordinary export 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]