全国铁路旅客列车图定日开行量宏观估算  

Macroscopic Estimation on the Number of Timetabled Daily Trains for National Passenger Railway

作　　者：张嘉敏 张嘉锐 ZHANG Jiamin;ZHANG Jiarui(College of Transportation,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;Qingdao locomotive depot,Jinan railway bureau,Qingdao 266041,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学交通学院,青岛266590 [2]中国铁路济南局集团有限公司青岛机务段,青岛266041

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第6期63-67,共5页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：列车开行数量与客流计划密切相关,全国铁路旅客列车图定日开行量定义为铁路全网范围内在一日的运营周期时间段中运行图所规定的开行各类旅客列车(包括高速列车、普速列车、城际列车、市域(郊)列车)数量之和。本文分析全路线网客运供给与需求概况、全国铁路旅客列车图定日开行量的影响因素;以“开车引流、适度超前”为原则,结合相关历史数据和“交通强国、铁路先行、城轨担当”的国家战略,提出全国铁路旅客列车图定日开行量的宏观估算步骤;以2019年为基年,得到目标年(2025年)的宏观估算结果。研究可为轨道交通列车开行方案、列车运行计划编制提供基础参考借鉴,以便进一步优化铁路运输供给侧结构,提升铁路运输效益。The number of trains is closely correlated to the plan of passenger flow.The number of timetabled daily trains for national passenger railway is defined as the sum of all kinds of timetabled passenger trains(including high-speed trains,ordinary-speed trains,inter-city trains,and suburban trains)operated in the national railway network within the daily time periods.This paper analyzed the status quo of the passenger supply and demand of the national passenger railway network,and the influencing factors of the number of the timetabled daily trains.Based on the principle of inducing passenger flow by operating trains and the principle of modest advance,combing with the related historical data and the national strategies of“building country with strong transportation network,railway taking actions in advance,urban rail transit taking responsibilities”,this research proposed the steps for macroscopic estimation on the number of timetabled daily trains for national passenger railway.Taking the year of 2019 as the base year,the results of the macroscopic estimation for the objective year(the year of 2025)were obtained.This study could be used for reference for the railway operation scheme and train operation plan,so as to optimize the supply structure of the railway transportation and improve the railway efficiency.

关 键 词：铁路旅客运输 分担率 运输供给 运输需求 图定日开行量 宏观估算 

分 类 号：U29[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]