中国省际人口流动成本量化分析——基于全国人口普查数据  

Quantitative Analysis of China's Inter-provincial Migration Cost:Based on National Census Data

作　　者：苏红键[1] SU HongJian

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《济南大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期60-72,182,共14页Journal of University of Jinan:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“城乡福祉、空间均衡与城镇化方略”(项目编号:20FJLB019)。

摘　　要：利用量化空间分析方法和2000年、2010年、2020年全国人口普查数据中的人口流动矩阵,分析省际人口流动成本特征及其构成。研究发现:第一,2000年以来,人口流动规模不断提升,总体流动成本表现出明显降低的特征,2000—2010年降低7.85%,2010—2020年降低6.94%。第二,距离与流动成本显著正相关且影响系数不断降低,流出地和流入地异质性特征变量显著影响各省份平均流出流入成本。第三,人户分离人口与5年间流动人口的本地流动份额差别较大,但不同统计口径计算的流出地和流入地成本系数的省际位序基本一致,体现了量化分析结果的稳健性。基于此,降低人口流动成本是促进福祉空间均衡、推动全域共同富裕的重要举措。应加快人口净流入地的户籍和公共服务制度改革攻坚、加快人口流动大省体制机制创新并激发偏远地区人口流动活力。Quantitative spatial analysis methods are employed to analyze inter-provincial population mobility using census data from 2000,2010 and 2020.The study finds that:First,since 2000,the scale of population migration has consistently increased,accompanied by a notable decrease in overall migration costs.Specifically,costs decreased by 7.85%from 2000 to 2010 and by 6.94%from 2010 to 2020.Second,distance demonstrates a significant positive correlation with migration costs,albeit with a decreasing influence coefficient over time.Heterogeneous characteristics of both outflow and inflow regions significantly impact the average costs associated with population movement.Third,there exists a substantial disparity between the local migration rates of households and recent migrants,yet the ranking of cost coefficients among outflow and inflow regions remains consistent across various statistical calibers.This consistency underscores the robustness of the study's quantitative analyses.Based on these findings,reducing the costs associated with population migration emerges as a crucial strategy to promote spatial equilibrium and foster regional prosperity.The study suggests accelerating reforms in household registration and public services in regions experiencing net population inflows,while promoting innovation in provinces with high migration rates to enhance population mobility in remote areas.

关 键 词：省际人口流动 流动成本 流动矩阵 量化空间模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]