内循环下的国内价值链长度与经济波动  

National Value Chain Length under Internal Circulation and Economic Volatility

作　　者：文武[1] 刘露 詹淼华 WEN Wu;LIU Lu;ZHAN Miaohua(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《南京财经大学学报》2024年第3期1-11,共11页Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球价值链嵌入下‘稳增长’的实现机制及策略研究”(18CJL011);浙江理工大学青年创新专项“二元嵌入视角下数字技术推动双重价值链国内延伸的机制和政策研究”(23096016-Y)。

摘　　要：科学剔除中国区域间投入产出表的外循环成分以准确刻画纯国内投入产出关系,基于此测度内循环下的国内价值链(NVC)长度,然后利用中国省市-行业维度面板数据研究其对经济波动的影响,得到的主要结论有:第一,促进内循环下的NVC长度延伸能显著降低中国经济波动水平,其作用机理在于增强产业韧性、激发国内需求及弥补制度环境的不足。第二,当开放度和全球价值链(GVC)分工地位较高时,延长NVC长度对经济波动的平抑作用更为显著,在全面扩大开放的当前时期,中国应借助NVC长度提升与GVC地位攀升的战略协同来稳定经济运行。第三,相比而言,提升制造业以及东部区域各行业NVC长度对减缓经济波动发挥了更为关键的作用。因此,着力延长内循环下的国内价值链长度并合理定位政策举措,是稳定经济的重要手段。This paper accurately characterizes pure domestic input-output relationships by scientifically removing the external circulation components of China's interregional input-output tables to measure the national value chain(NVC)production length under internal circulation.Chinese provincial-industrial dimension panel data are then used to study its impact on economic volatility.The main conclusions are as follows.First,promoting the extension of the NVC length under internal circulation can significantly reduce China's economic volatility.The mechanism for this effect is to enhance industrial resilience,stimulate domestic consumption,and make up for deficiencies in the institutional environment.Second,when there is openness,and the status of the global value chain(GVC)is high,the effect of extending the NVC length has a more significant stabilizing effect on economic volatility.In the current period of increased openness on all fronts,China should stabilize its economy through a strategic synergy of NVC extension and GVC upgrading.Third,in comparison,increasing NVC length for manufacturing industries and those in the eastern region is more crucial for stabilizing economic volatility.Therefore,focusing on extending the length of the NVC under internal circulation and reasonably positioning policy measures is an important means for stabilizing economic operations.

关 键 词：内循环 NVC长度 经济波动 产业韧性 增加值 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]