考虑舆情演化态势影响的突发事件两阶段应急案例检索方法  

Two-stage Emergency Case Retrieval Method for Emergencies with the Influence of the Public Opinion Evolution Situation

作　　者：王治莹[1] 余刘刘 赵宏丽 聂慧芳 WANG Zhiying;YU Liuliu;ZHAO Hongli;NIE Huifang(School of Management Science&Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,China;School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092 [3]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第5期62-69,共8页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72074002,71704001);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085Y20);安徽省高校杰出青年科研项目(2022AH020031)。

摘　　要：针对突发事件衍生的舆情信息及其演化态势影响应急处置决策的问题,本文提出一种考虑舆情演化态势影响的突发事件两阶段应急案例检索方法。首先,通过计算舆情信息热度值,判断舆情演化态势的影响程度,并确定案例检索阶段;其次,通过融入决策者风险感知偏好,计算事件属性及事件的相似度,并构建第一阶段案例检索过程;在此基础上,通过计算和集结舆情信息属性及舆情信息的相似度,得到案例的综合相似度,并构建第二阶段案例检索过程;最后,通过案例应用和方法对比验证了所提方法的可行性及有效性。结果表明,所提方法不仅能够反映决策者风险感知偏好在应急案例检索中的重要作用,还能够体现事件衍生的舆情信息及其演化态势对决策结果的影响。In recent years,emergencies have caused serious loss of life and property in China and the international community,and their characteristics of uncertainty,suddenness and dynamism often force decision-makers to draw on past event-handling experiences to rapidly formulate emergency response plans.In addition,with the development of mobile Internet and smart terminal devices,once an emergency occurs,the related information derived from it usually receives a large number of comments and retweets from the public,and this kind of information interaction promotes the evolution of public opinion,which,in turn,has a counter effect on the process of handling emergencies.Therefore,it is of great significance to propose a more targeted case retrieval method by considering the influence of public opinion evolution situation on the process in the context of decision makers drawing on historical case experiences to solve current case emergency response problems.However,the existing case retrieval-based emergency response decision-making methods seldom take into account the impact of public opinion information derived from emergencies and its evolution situation on decision-making results,and it is difficult to conduct research from the overall perspective of the event chain.To this end,the problem to be solved is how to quantify and incorporate the effects of the decision maker’s risk perception preference and the evolution situation of public opinion on the case retrieval process according to the decision-making information such as the given case attributes(including those of the event and the public opinion information)and their weights,in order to retrieve the most similar historical cases from an event chain perspective.Based on this,a two-stage emergency case retrieval method in response to emergencies with the influence of the public opinion evolution situation is proposed.The basic idea of this method is:on the one hand,based on the purpose of case retrieval,the historical cases that are most similar to the target cas

关 键 词：案例检索 相似度 突发事件 舆情演化态势 事件链 

分 类 号：N945.12[自然科学总论—系统科学] C934[经济管理—管理学] O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]