具有相依竞争失效的复杂系统可靠性分析  

Reliability of Complex Systems with Mutually Dependent Competing Failures

作　　者：邢梦雪 李颜[1] XING Mengxue;LI Yan(School of Sciences,Hebei University of Science and Technology,Shijiazhuang 050018,China)

机构地区：[1]河北科技大学理学院,河北石家庄050018

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第5期126-131,共6页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72001070,72071071);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(A2022208001);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(QN2019062)。

摘　　要：在工程应用中,环境的多变通常会使系统在运行过程中经历多种冲击及失效模式。并且随着智能化的发展,系统在受到冲击后具有自愈能力,因此,针对冲击会增加系统的退化量和退化率,且系统抵抗冲击的能力随着退化也会下降的现象,提出了具有相依竞争失效过程的复杂系统可靠性分析方法。首先应用冲击和退化的相依竞争失效理论,针对系统运行和自愈机制建立了新的退化模型,然后对无自愈和有自愈两种情况下的系统突发失效和退化失效过程进行建模,同时也得到了无自愈情况下的可靠度解析表达式。由于有自愈模型的复杂性,无法给出可靠度函数的解析解,但给出了Monte Carlo模拟的算法从而得到系统可靠度的模拟解。最后以微机电系统为例对提出的可靠性模型的正确性和有效性进行了验证,并进行了敏感性分析。In engineering applications,systems in operation generally experience multiple shock-failure modes and mutually dependent competing failure process(MDCFP)because of the variability of environments,and thus it is necessary to consider the mutual influence between degradation and external shocks.On one hand,shock arrivals not only increase the degradation amount of the system,but also its degradation rate with time.On the other hand,the ability of the system to resist external shocks also decreases with the gradual degraded performance of the system.In this circumstance,the system is more vulnerable to damage due to the external shocks.Meanwhile,with the development of intelligence,more and more systems have self-healing mechanism after shock-arriving.In the existing literature,some scholars have only studied an external shock impact on the system degradation,but have not investigated a system degradation impact on the ability to resist random shocks.And few literatures have focused on a self-healing system with MDCFP.Based on the above analysis and background,therefore it is necessary to propose a novel reliability model,which is a self-healing system with mutually dependent competing failure process(DMDCFP),to calculate the system reliability more accurately.It has a certain theoretical significance and engineering value to consider this kind of model and its reliability analysis.This model in this paper not only brings some tools for describing real phenomena,but also opens a new way to research the degradation model and shock model,and is a supplement of the reliability modeling theory.What’s more,our achievements can also provide a new idea for the design of highly reliable engineering systems.Therefore,a reliability analysis method for the self-healing system is developed by MDCFP,including soft failure and hard failure.In this model,the total degradation consists of internal natural degradation caused by wear and corrosion,and damage produced by external random shocks.Shocks increase the system degradation

关 键 词：相依竞争失效过程 Monte Carlo 可靠性 随机过程 自愈机制 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]