中国内地集装箱港口体系吞吐量增长的俱乐部收敛研究  

Research on Club Convergence in Throughput Growth of China’s Mainland Container Port System

作　　者：李婉莹 尤再进 隋意 LI Wanying;YOU Zaijin;SUI Yi(College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Economics and Management,Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology,Jilin 132000,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]吉林化工学院经济管理学院,吉林吉林132000

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第5期154-160,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”攀登学者项目(XLYC200202);“十四五”国家重点研发项目(2021YFB2601100)。

摘　　要：本文旨在探究中国内地集装箱港口体系发展是否存在俱乐部收敛。基于2001—2020年52个集装箱港口的吞吐量数据,采用非线性时变因子模型对港口体系进行收敛识别和俱乐部聚类,在此基础上采用定序逻辑模型探索俱乐部收敛的驱动机制。主要研究结果表明:(1)中国内地集装箱港口吞吐量增长不存在整体收敛,可划分为4个不同层次的俱乐部;(2)中国集装箱港口体系规模分布相对集中,部分中小港口发展相对缓慢甚至停滞;(3)港口的初始条件、港口所在城市的规模、外贸、产业结构和交通发展速度能够影响集装箱吞吐量的收敛水平,但经贸推动是港口发展的源动力。Since China’s entry into the World Trade Organization(WTO)in 2001,the development of import and export markets has driven a rapid growth in container throughput in Chinese ports.Due to the fact that container ports serve as catalysts for regional economic development and important infrastructure for ensuring the smooth operation of international industrial and supply chains,sufficient attention and importance should be given to the construction and development of container ports.As far as container throughput is concerned,China’s ports have performed well,but due to the historical reasons for port development and the different natural resource endowments of each port region,the challenge of uneven port development in China always exists.Looking forward to the future,China will continue opening to the outside world and rely on the development of ports to trade with other countries.Thus,whether the container ports’performance converges or diverges and how the development gap among ports would develop and evolve over timeare questions that bear significant implicationsfor port operationsand management.Convergence is mostly used in the field of economics,referring to the phenomenon of narrowing the income gap between developing and developed countries.Club convergence is a special kind of convergence phenomenon,which means that economies with similar initial levels would converge under the effect of similar structural characteristics,so that multiple steady states coexist in the form of“intra-club convergence and inter-club divergence”.The natural conditions and resource endowments vary greatly among different regions in China,thus resulting in a certain degree of uneven development among container ports in various regions.In order to comprehend the disparity in development among ports,analyze potential factors and driving mechanisms that contribute to either the reduction or expansion of the port development gap,and investigate the underlying patterns of port development,the concept of convergence within a

关 键 词：中国内地集装箱港口体系 俱乐部收敛 定序逻辑模型 驱动机制 集装箱吞吐量 

分 类 号：F552[经济管理—产业经济]