基于空间杜宾模型的中国274市PM_(2.5)浓度时空特征及影响因素研究  

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and the Factors Influencing PM_(2.5) Concentration in 274 Cities of China Based on Spatial Durbin Model

作　　者：牛晓耕 车佳楠 刘美玉[3] NIU Xiaogeng;CHE Jianan;LIU Meiyu(Hebei GEO University of Economics,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050031,China;Research Base for Technological Innovation and Sustainable Development of Regional Economy,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050031,China;China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学,河北石家庄050031 [2]科技创新与区域经济可持续发展研究基地,河北石家庄050031 [3]中国地质大学,北京100083

出　　处：《保定学院学报》2024年第4期1-12,共12页Journal of Baoding University

基　　金：河北省教育厅重点项目“产业共生视域下京津冀生态环境协同治理的内生机制与优化路径研究”(SD201051);河北地质大学自然资源资本资产研究中心项目(NRACRC2022A02);河北省科技厅软科学项目(21554201D)。

摘　　要：PM_(2.5)是雾霾污染的重要成分之一,研究其时空演变特征及影响因素对控制PM_(2.5)浓度升高有重要意义。采用2003—2020年274个地级以上城市PM_(2.5)浓度及相关指标数据,结合GIS空间分析以及面板空间杜宾模型对PM_(2.5)浓度的时空演变特征和影响因素进行全面解析。结果表明:1)PM_(2.5)浓度呈波动下降趋势且其分布存在明显的地区差异,重污染区域主要分布在华北、华中和华东地区。2)PM_(2.5)浓度呈现出显著的空间关联特征,大多数城市都是高-高集聚或低-低集聚。3)在社会经济因素中,政府环境治理、科技支出和外商直接投资对PM_(2.5)浓度是负向影响,工业化水平和人口密度对PM_(2.5)浓度是正向影响;在自然因素中,年均风速、年均日照时数和地形起伏度等对PM_(2.5)浓度是负向影响。基于实证研究分析,从顶层设计出发,提出大气污染防治的可行性建议。PM_(2.5) is one of the important components of Fog-Haze pollution.Studying its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors is of great significance to control its increase.In this paper,the PM_(2.5) concentration data of 274 cities at prefecture level from 2003 to 2020 are used to comprehensively analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors with GIS Spatial Analysis and Panel Spatial Durbin Model.The results show that:1)there were obvious regional differences in the distribution of PM_(2.5) concentrations,with the heavily polluted areas mainly distributed in North China,Central China and Eest China.2)PM_(2.5) concentrations show significant spatial correlation and most cities are high-high agglomeration or low-low agglomeration.3)Among the socio-economic factors,government environmental governance and foreign direct investment have a negative impact on PM_(2.5) concentration;among the natural factors,average annual temperature,sunshine hours,and topographic relief have a negative impact on PM_(2.5) concentration.Based on the empirical analysis,this paper puts forward the feasible suggestions for air pollution prevention and control.

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 时空演变 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F831.4[经济管理—金融学]