电商市场是否会促进价格水平的稳定?——来自纯牛奶商品的实证证据  

Does E-commerce Promote Price Stability?--Evidence from Pure Milk Products in China

作　　者：陈歆昱 黄益平[2] 邱晗 CHEN Xinyu;HUANG Yiping;QIU Han(National Council for Social Security Fund;Peking University;Bank for International Settlements)

机构地区：[1]全国社会保障基金理事会,北京市100032 [2]北京大学国家发展研究院、数字金融研究中心 [3]国际清算银行

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2024年第3期824-842,共19页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：阿里巴巴学者支持计划支持。

摘　　要：2012年以来,我国消费者价格指数(CPI)波动明显收窄,同期电商市场发展也显著提速。本文以纯牛奶商品作为研究对象,将购买自某全球知名市场调研公司的线下零售数据和天猫超市的线上零售数据相匹配。研究发现,线上销售占总销售的比例每增加1%,线下价格波动率就会降低3.2%—13.2%。反事实模拟的结果则显示,如果没有线上销售渠道,整体的价格波动率可能会上升22.8%。该结果说明电商平台将各地市场更加紧密地融为一体,并增强了价格的稳定性。Since 2012,the fluctuation of China's Consumer Price Index(CPI)has significantly narrowed,and the development of the e-commerce market has also significantly accelerated during the same period.Taking pure milk products as the research object,matching offline retail data purchased from a globally renowned market research company with online retail data from Tmall Supermarket,we find that for every 1%increase in the proportion of online sales to total sales,the offline price volatility will decrease by 3.2%-13.2%.The results of counterfactual simulation show that without online sales channels,the overall price volatility may increase by 22.8%.This result indicates that e-commerce platforms are integrating local markets more closely and enhancing price stability.

关 键 词：消费者价格指数 价格稳定 网络零售 

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