地方政策不连续与容积率规制——来自城市土地出让的证据  

Policy Discontinuity and Floor Area Ratio Regulation--Evidence from Residential Land Leasing in China

作　　者：秦蒙 杜聪 刘修岩[4] QIN Meng;DU Cong;LIU Xiuyan(Shandong University of Finance and Economics;Southeast University;Jiangnan University)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院 [2]东南大学经济管理学院 [3]江南大学商学院 [4]东南大学经济管理学院国家发展与政策研究院,江苏省南京市211102

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2024年第3期1014-1030,共17页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“城市群空间结构优化促进区域协调发展的机制与路径研究”(19CJL020)和国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD066)的资助。

摘　　要：住宅容积率规制对塑造城市空间结构和调节住房供给都有重要作用。本文通过Python软件提取了2005—2015年间的5.1万余条住宅用地出让数据,实证分析发现:地方官员变更带来的政策不连续会导致容积率限值上升,这一效应在中国的北方和东部地区更明显,且仅存在于政策不连续发生当年。这很可能是因为地方政策不连续性减少了住宅用地的出让面积,进而需要更高的容积率来容纳城市人口。本文结论为优化我国城市的住宅用地规制提供了启示。Housing supply regulation in the form of floor area ratio(FAR)plays an important role in regional spatial patterns and people's livelihood welfare.In this paper the housing FAR regulations of over 50000 residential land parcels sold during 2005-2015 in China are estimated and the results show that the local policy discontinuity leads to deregulation of FAR(higher upper bound)probably due to the decrease of land leasing during the year of policy discontinuity,which is more obvious in the eastern regions and northern part of China.The results and causal relationships can also be identified by econometric approaches such as instrumental variable regressions.

关 键 词：政策不连续性 容积率规制 住宅用地出让 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]