煤化工灾害识别与应急决策技术研究  

Research on Disaster Identification and Emergency Decision Technology of Coal Chemical Industry

作　　者：王晨羲 宋波波 马腾 郝乐 Chenxi Wang;Bobo Song;Teng Ma;Le Hao(School of Public Safety and Emergency Management,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan;Shaanxi Future Energy Chemical Co.,Ltd.,Yulin Shaanxi;School of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学公共安全与应急管理学院,云南昆明 [2]陕西未来能源化工有限公司,陕西榆林 [3]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安

出　　处：《运筹与模糊学》2024年第3期479-489,共11页Operations Research and Fuzziology

摘　　要：随着煤化工的发展,煤化工产业的危险灾害开始向多样化发展,事故发生也多余其他行业,且造成的事故发生扩展,影响周边装置的安全性及衍生次生伤害。基于事故的频发性和事故后果,依据ARAMIS标准,判定研究目标液化气分离单元属于重大危险源,结合典型事故判别易发生事故为蒸汽与爆炸;以Bow-tie模型和贝叶斯网络为基础,将Bow-tie模型转化为贝叶斯模型,组件事故扩展模型进行推演;以丙烯泄露为实例,赋予事故原因根节点概率,得出扩展后果发生的概率,针对事故风险,提出了基于蒸气云爆炸模拟情景决策内容与蒸气云爆炸事故通用预防方案,为煤化工产业预防蒸气云爆炸事故提供理论依据。With the development of coal chemical industry,the dangerous disasters of coal chemical in-dustry began to diversify,and the accidents occurred more than other industries,and the acci-dents caused by the expansion,affecting the safety of surrounding devices and derived secondary injuries.Based on the frequency and consequences of accidents,according to the ARAMIS stan-dard,it is determined that the liquefied gas separation unit of the research target is a major ha-zard source,and combined with typical accidents,it is determined that the prone accidents are steam and explosion.Based on Bow-tie model and Bayesian network,the Bow-tie model is trans-formed into Bayesian model,and the component fault extension model is deduced.Taking pro-pylene leakage as an example,the probability of the root node of the accident cause is given,and the probability of the occurrence of the extended consequences is obtained.In view of the accident risk,the decision content based on the steam cloud explosion simulation scenario and the general prevention scheme of the steam cloud explosion accident are proposed,which provides a theoret-ical basis for the prevention of the steam cloud explosion accident in the coal chemical industry.

关 键 词：Bow-Tie模型 贝叶斯网络 蒸气云爆炸 事故预防 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]