美国贸易保护主义的长期化趋势及其内在逻辑  

US Trade Protectionism:The Long-term Trend and Its Internal Logics

作　　者：刘晓伟 刘飞涛 Liu Xiaowei;Liu Feitao

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院世界经济与发展研究所,北京100005 [2]中国国际问题研究院全球治理与国际组织研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《国际论坛》2024年第4期123-136,159,160,共16页International Forum

摘　　要：拜登政府上任以来,推出“以工人为中心”的贸易政策,在继承并维持特朗普关税政策的基础上,以“拜登经济学”理念为指引,通过强化市场干预、扩大歧视性产业补贴、搁置多边贸易机制、构建排他性经贸“小圈子”等方式对美国经济进行全方位保护。美国贸易保护政策得到理论化重构和系统化发展,并日益呈现长期化和战略化趋势。美国贸易保护主义之所以呈现这一发展趋势,既有其国内政治经济逻辑,也符合其维护对外霸权的战略需要。从国内政治看,以特朗普鼓吹“美国优先”原则为发端,美国民主、共和两党争相迎合国内民粹主义及反全球化浪潮,意图以保护主义的方式推动国内制造业振兴,增加制造业国内就业,巩固并扩大本党选民的基本盘。从对外战略取向看,特朗普及拜登政府都将中国定义为21世纪最大的战略竞争对手和事关美国全球霸权的最大地缘政治挑战,中美经贸关系也因此被过度安全化和意识形态化。保护性贸易政策虽然短期内在配合产业回流和提高就业等方面显现出一定的效果,长期则不仅有损盟友利益和全球经济,也对美国经济产生反噬效应。考虑到美国产业振兴战略及对华战略竞争的需要,美国此轮贸易保护主义将长期呈现强势发展势头,短期内不会随美国政府更迭而发生实质性变化。Since taking office the Biden administration has adopted a“worker-centered”trade policy,and building on Trump’s trade wars and consistent with Bidenomics,used various means to protect the US economy in an all-round way such as strengthening market intervention,expanding discriminatory industrial subsidies,disregarding the multilateral trading system,and establishing exclusionary trade cliques.With updated theoretical foundation and systematization,US trade protectionism is likely to stay for the long term and be used for strategic purposes.This development not only meets its domestic political and economic needs,but also the strategic goal of maintaining its hegemony.In domestic politics,starting with Trump’s advocacy of the“America first”principle,Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to pander to domestic populists and the anti-globalizationists.They all seek to use protectionism to revitalize domestic manufacturing,increase manufacturing jobs,and consolidate and expand their parties’constituent bases.Externally the Trump and Biden administrations have defined China as the foremost strategic competitor in the 21st century and the biggest geopolitical challenge to US global hegemony.As a result,China-US economic and trade relations are increasingly seen through security and ideological lenses.Although protectionist policies have had certain effects in the short term in terms of the return of manufacturing and boosting employment,in the long term they not only harm the interests of US allies and the global economy but are also counterproductive for the US economy.But given the US goal of industrial revitalization strategy and strategic competition with China,this round of US trade protectionism is likely to maintain its strong momentum in the long run and will not change despite changes of different US administrations in the short term.

关 键 词：拜登政府 “以工人为中心”的贸易政策 贸易保护主义 拜登经济学 中美经贸关系 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]