未来气候条件下蒙古草原植被的预测分布  

Projected distributions of Mongolian rangeland vegetation under future climate conditions

作　　者：Kohei Suzuki Ikutaro Tsuyama Radnaakhand Tungalag Amartuvshin Narantsetseg Tsagaanbandi Tsendeekhuu Masato Shinoda Norikazu Yamanaka Takashi Kamijo 

机构地区：[1]Department of Regional Regeneration Science,Faculty of Regional Environment Science,Tokyo University of Agriculture,Tokyo 156-8502,Japan [2]Hokkaido Research Center,Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute,Hokkaido 062-8516,Japan [3]Department ofBiology,School of Arts and Sciences,National University of Mongolia,Ulaanbaatar 210646,Mongolia [4]Botanic Garden and ResearchInstitute,Mongolian Academy of Science,Ulaanbaatar 51,Mongolia [5]Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences,GraduateSchool of Environmental Studies,Nagoya University,Nagoya 464-8601,Japan [6]Arid Land Research Center,Tottori University,Tottori680-0001,Japan [7]Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences,University of Tsukuba,Ibaraki 305-8572,Japan

出　　处：《Journal of Plant Ecology》2024年第3期16-27,共12页植物生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：JSPS KAKENHI grants(13J00343,16J10051 and 25220201);the Joint Research Program of Arid Land Research Center,Tottori University(28D2002).

摘　　要：蒙古牧民家庭通过适应当地植被分布的特点来维持牲畜的健康状况。因此,预测未来植被变化对于稳定的牲畜放牧和可持续的草原利用至关重要。本研究基于前期研究获得的植被数据预测了2081年至2100年间草原植被,尤其是沙漠草原、草原和草甸草原的分布范围。我们首先基于在蒙古(43–50°N,87–119°E)收集的草原植被数据(2012至2016年,278个样地)划分了不同的群落类型。其次,采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型进行物种分布建模,其中以荒漠草原、草原和草甸草原的分布数据作为目标变量,使用WorldClim的生物气候数据作为解释变量。最后,采用WorldClim提供的CMIP6下缩放的未来气候预测数据进行未来预测。结果发现,荒漠草原、草原和草甸草原模型的曲线下面积值分别为0.850、0.847和0.873。根据所有情景和所有群落的气候变化,适宜栖息地预计将缩小。潜在适宜区域减少的程度在草甸草原群落中最为显著。上述结果表明,未来气候变化情景下草甸草原群落将转变为草原群落。Mongolian herder households maintain the health and condition of their livestock by adapting to the characteristics of the local vegetation distribution.Thus,predicting future vegetation changes is important for stable livestock grazing and sustainable rangeland use.We predicted the distributional extent of rangeland vegetation,specifcally desert steppe,steppe and meadow steppe communities,for the period 2081–2100,based on vegetation data obtained from a previous study.Rangeland vegetation data collected in Mongolia(43–50°N,87–119°E)between 2012 and 2016(278 plots)were classifed into community types.Species distribution modeling was conducted using a maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model.Distribution data for desert steppe,steppe and meadow steppe communities were used as objective variables,and bioclimatic data obtained from WorldClim were used as explanatory variables.CMIP6-downscaled future climate projections provided by WorldClim were used for future prediction.The area under the curve values for the desert steppe,steppe and meadow steppe models were 0.850,0.847 and 0.873,respectively.Suitable habitat was projected to shrink under all scenarios and for all communities with climate change.The extent of reduction in potential suitable areas was greatest for meadow steppe communities.Our results indicate that meadow steppe communities will transition to steppe communities with future climate change.

关 键 词：气候变化 群落 最大熵 物种分布建模 草原 WorldClim 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]