持续性减税降费对提升区域经济发展水平影响研究——基于DID双重差分法  

Research on the Impact of Continuous Tax and Fee Reductions on Improving Regional Economic Development Level:Based on the Difference in Difference

作　　者：杨广莉 余婷芳 梁诗程 YANG Guangli;YU Tingfang;LIANG Shicheng(School of Accounting,Guangzhou Xinhua University,Guangzhou 510520,China)

机构地区：[1]广州新华学院会计学院,广东广州510520

出　　处：《商业观察》2024年第19期59-63,共5页BUSINESS OBSERVATION

基　　金：广州市哲学社科规划2022年度课题(2022GZGJ40);广州新华学院基金项目(202B00K6YY)。

摘　　要：“持续性减税”是国家应对当前国际形势和突发事件,为推进供给侧结构性改革、稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸做出的重要决定。文章对持续性减税降费对提升区域经济发展水平的影响展开研究,选取1998—2019年我国30个省市(除西藏外)的相关数据作为研究样本;将2012年实施减税降费的9个省市(上海、北京、江苏、安徽、福建、广东、天津、浙江、湖北)视为处理组,将没有实施减税降费的其他省市视为控制组;对于上述9个省市,选取2012年作为政策冲击年份;对于其他省市,选取2013年为政策冲击年份。采用DID双重差分法进行分析,实证结果显示,实施减税降费政策能够提升区域经济发展水平,且对于第三产业区域的经济发展效果具有更显著的提升作用。通过平稳趋势检验、安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配PSM进行估计,结论仍然成立。"Continuous tax reduction"is an important decision made by China.It is an important measure to respond to the current international situation,emergencies,and promote supply side structural reform,stabilize employment,finance,and foreign trade.This paper studies the impact of continuous tax and fee reductions on improving regional economic development,selects relevant data from 30 provinces and cities(except the Xizang)in China from 1998 to 2019 as research samples,and regards 9 provinces and cities(Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu,Anhui,Fujian,Guangdong,Tianjin,Zhejiang,Hubei)that implemented tax and fee reductions in 2012 as treatment groups,and other provinces and cities that did not implement tax and fee reductions as control groups.For the above 9 provinces and cities,2012 is selected as the year of policy impact.While for the other provinces and cities,2013 is selected as the year of policy impact.This paper uses the difference in difference(DID)to analyze the above data,and the empirical results show that the implementation of tax and fee reduction policies can improve the level of regional economic development,and have significant effects on improving the regional economic development of the tertiary industry.These results are still valid after being estimated by the stationary trend test,placebo test and propensity score matching(PSM).

关 键 词：减税降费 区域经济 DID双重差分法 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]