2000年以来贵州最强梅汛期降水异常成因分析  

Causes of Abnormal Precipitation During the HeaviestMeiyu Rainfall Season in Guizhou since 2000

作　　者：杜小玲 蓝伟 陈波 DU Xiaoling;LAN Wei;CHEN Bo(Guizhou Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Meteorological Data Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Meteorological Office of Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture in Qianxinan of Guizhou Province,Xingyi 562400,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象台,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省气象数据中心,贵州贵阳550002 [3]贵州省黔西南布依族苗族自治州气象局,贵州兴义562400

出　　处：《山地气象学报》2024年第3期1-11,共11页Journal of Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：贵州省气象局“贵州雨窝监测预报技术研究”创新团队资助。

摘　　要：【目的】为揭示2000年以来贵州最强梅汛期降水异常成因。【方法】利用天擎降水资料挑选出了2000年以来贵州最强梅汛期年份及其降水特征,再利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及风云FY-2G黑体亮温(TBB)资料,诊断分析最强梅汛期贵州降水异常偏多的原因及极端降水成因。【结果】(1)2020年梅汛期贵州累计降水量是1961年以来的次多年,是2000年以来的降水最异常年份;暴雨集中在6月上旬—7月上旬,6月23日和29日降水强度具有极端性。(2)2020年梅汛期贵州频繁的暴雨过程及极端暴雨与江淮梅雨的大背景密不可分。(3)2020年梅汛期影响贵州的中尺度低涡系统频繁,中尺度对流系统十分活跃。这些中尺度系统大多初生于贵州西部,在贵州省内发展加强,并产生暴雨天气,MCC是6月23日及29日极端降水的直接影响系统。(4)2020年梅汛期低空急流异常活跃,尤其是6月下旬初、下旬末及7月上旬后期出现了3段持续时间长、强度强劲的低空急流,为梅汛期的持续性暴雨过程、范围最广的3次暴雨过程及极端暴雨提供了异常充沛的水汽条件。【结论】研究结果为进一步做好梅汛期持续性暴雨、致洪暴雨和极端暴雨预报提供了依据。To reveal the causes of the abnormal precipitation during the heaviest Meiyu rainfall season in Guizhou since 2000,the Tianqing precipitation data is used to identify the years with heaviest rainfall in Meiyu season in Guizhou since 2000 and the precipitation characteristics.Furthermore,the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and FY-2G blackbody brightness temperature(TBB)data are adopted to diagnose the reasons for the abnormally more precipitation and the causes of extreme precipitation.The results are as follows:(1)In the Meiyu season of 2020,the accumulated precipitation in Guizhou was the second-highest since 1961,and 2020 was the year with most anomalous precipitation since 2000.The rainstorms were concentrated from early June to early July,with extreme precipitation intensities on June 23rd and 29th.(2)The frequent rainstorm processes and extreme rainstorms in Guizhou during the Meiyu season of 2020 were closely related to the general background of the Meiyu rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.(3)During the Meiyu season of 2020,mesoscale low-vortex systems that influenced Guizhou occurred frequently,and mesoscale convective systems were very active.Most of these mesoscale systems were initially formed in the western part of Guizhou,and then developed and strengthened within the province,leading to rainstorm weather.Mesoscale convective complexes(MCCs)were the direct influencing systems for the extreme precipitation on June 23rd and 29th.(4)In the Meiyu season of 2020,the low-level jet stream was abnormally active,especially in the early and late days of late June and the late days of early July when three sustained and intense low-level jet streams occurred.This provided exceptionally abundant water vapor conditions for the three persistent and most widespread rainstorm processes,and extreme rainstorms during the Meiyu season.The research results are expected to provide a basis for further improving the forecasting of persistent heavy rain,flood-inducing rainstorms,and extreme rainstorms in the Meiyu season.

关 键 词：梅汛期 降水异常 极端降水 中尺度对流系统 低空急流 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]