逆风前行:台风灾害与银行风险行为  

Marching Against the Wind:Typhoon Disasters and Banks'Risky Behaviors

作　　者：吕勇斌[1] 李志生 郭懿晨 LV Yongbin;LI Zhisheng;GUO Yichen(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;School of Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]西南财经大学金融学院,四川成都610074

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第1期19-37,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：数字技术与现代金融学科创新引智基地(B21038)的资助。

摘　　要：台风作为一种强度大、高频发的极端天气,不仅对经济活动造成巨大破坏,也会对金融部门产生强烈冲击,引发一系列连锁反应和反馈行为。本文以2010—2019年台风事件作为自然实验,选取295家地方性商业银行作为研究对象,匹配3452家A股上市公司的经营数据,运用风场模型构建城市级台风破坏指标,从企业经营渠道探讨台风灾害对银行风险行为的影响。研究发现,台风灾害导致银行信贷违约风险显著上升,促使银行提高风险承担水平。机制分析表明,台风灾害降低了企业生产效率、造成了企业固定资产损失,由此导致当地银行信用违约风险上升。进一步分析表明,台风灾害影响金融机构的传导过程并非是单向的。银行信贷违约风险的上升降低了银行风险偏好,引发更为谨慎的信贷决策,传导至企业层面,使得企业融资成本上升,最终放大台风灾害对整个经济金融活动的影响。本文为银行气候风险治理提供了新的经验证据。Climate change has become a major challenge to all of humankind,with profound impacts on the financial and economic system.As an extreme weather event occurring with high frequency and intensity,typhoons not only cause great damage to economic activities but also have a powerful impact on the financial sector,which in turn triggers a series of chain reactions and feedback behaviors.The literature on the impact of typhoon disasters on banks'risk behavior is still insufficient.Researchers face certain difficulties when applying existing climate risk indicators to study typhoon disasters.Additionally,the literature on typhoon research has tended to focus on the post-disaster resumption problems of real enterprises and the operation of the capital market,with less research on the impact on the banking sector,which is an important participant in economic operations.China's financial system is still dominated by the bank-led indirect financing system,and commercial banks are the first to bear the brunt of climate disasters.In view of this,this paper empirically examines the impact of typhoon disasters on banks'risk behavior by taking 295 local commercial banks in China during 2010-2019 as research objects,matching the operational data of 3452 A-share listed companies,and combining these with the Holland wind field model to calculate a typhoon destructive power index at the city level.The paper also examines the mediating effects of corporate total factor productivity and corporate fixed asset losses,and it further analyzes the resulting series of chain reactions and feedback behaviors,including changes in banks'risk appetite and credit decisions.This paper's empirical analyses yield several findings.First,typhoon disasters significantly raise banks'non-performing loan ratios(NPLRs)and increase banks'credit risk,and they raise banks'NPLRs significantly more in coastal areas than in inland areas.Second,the rise in corporate fixed asset losses and the decline in corporate total factor productivity levels are important cha

关 键 词：台风灾害 银行风险行为 生产效率 资产损失 融资约束 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]