经济周期与污染排放强度——机制分析与政策应对  

Business Cycles and Pollution Emission Intensity-Mechanism Analysis and Policy Response

作　　者：李建军 冯可欣 邓贵川 彭俞超 LI Jianjun;FENG Kexin;DENG Guichuan;PENG Yuchao(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics;International School of Business and Finance,Sun Yat-Sen University;Advanced Institute of Finance,Sun Yat-Sen University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院/丝路金融研究中心,北京102206 [2]中山大学国际金融学院/高级金融研究院,广东珠海519082

出　　处：《金融研究》2024年第1期96-112,共17页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA116);国家自然科学基金(72273160,71903208,71903205)的资助。

摘　　要：随着我国经济迈入新发展阶段,绿色发展理念深入人心,如何处理好环境保护与经济发展的关系、提升经济增长质量,是未来经济发展的核心问题。本文首先结合1998—2013年中国工业企业污染排放数据考察经济周期与污染排放强度之间的关系,发现污染排放强度呈现逆周期性。基于这一事实,我们构建了带有环境约束的两部门异质性企业模型,刻画污染排放强度的动态特征,并从企业结构效应和家庭一般均衡效应角度,分析污染排放强度逆周期性的理论机制。数值模拟发现,经济下行时,减排项目收益率相对非减排项目下降幅度更大,企业倾向于投资非减排项目,投资减排项目的企业数量减少,使得污染排放强度上升。与此同时,污染问题带来的负外部性增加,并通过劳动供给下降和劳动成本上升降低企业利润,阻碍企业主动减排和经济绿色可持续发展。经济上行期则相反。政策分析表明,当经济处于下行周期时,盯住污染排放强度的排放税政策、清洁设备补贴政策以及污染企业信贷限制政策,均能有效抑制污染排放强度上升,其中,排放税政策和补贴政策通过企业部门的结构效应缓解了环境影响。本文为完善环境政策的设计提供了理论证据。In the face of environmental issues and limited resources,how to coordinate the relationship between development and emission reduction,while alleviating business cycle fluctuations and encouraging enterprises to take the initiative in emission reduction,is of great significance for achieving a“win-win”situation between the economy and environment.To answer this question,it is necessary to first clarify the relationship between business cycles and corporate emission reduction behavior and environmental performance.Thus,this paper focuses on pollution emission intensity,aiming to explore the dynamic processes,internal mechanisms,and policy responses of different corporate reduction behaviors in different business cycles in China,to facilitate green and high-quality enterprise development.Based on the pollution data of Chinese industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2013,we observe the countercyclical characteristics of pollution emission intensity.To explain this finding,this paper constructs a two-sector DSGE model with environmental constraints to analyze the relationship between business cycles and pollution emission intensity.In the model,both high-emission and low-emission projects are established.Low-emission projects introduce cleaner production equipment into the production function,so their pollution emission intensity is lower than in high-emission projects,resulting in lower environmental negative externalities.The model also includes enterprise heterogeneity with respect to management ability for cleaner production equipment,such that enterprises'choice of optimal project depends on their own ability to manage low-emission projects.Specifically,enterprises with high management skills are more likely to choose low-emission projects.To describe the externality of pollution emissions,this paper introduces pollutant-adjusted labor into the household utility function.This setting helps to elucidate the general equilibrium effects of pollution emissions on the macro-economy.Subsequently,through impulse respo

关 键 词：经济周期 污染排放强度 企业减排 环境政策 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124[经济管理—世界经济]