灾度模型的一般表达式及应用  

General Expression and Application of Disaster Magnitude Model

作　　者：徐国栋 薄景山 李巨文 张云霞 Xu Guodong;Bo Jingshan;Li Juwen;Zhang Yunxia(School of Geological Engineering,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Risk Assessment,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;National Disaster Reduction Center of China,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院,地质工程学院,河北三河065201 [2]河北省地震灾害防御与风险评价重点实验室,河北三河065201 [3]应急管理部国家减灾中心,北京100124

出　　处：《中国地震》2024年第2期313-325,共13页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3006400);防灾科技学院校内项目(2171231018)共同资助。

摘　　要：灾害(自然灾害和人为灾害)等级评定有利于灾害分级管理。本文选取直接经济损失相对值(直接经济损失/人均GDP)、死亡人数、受伤(重伤+轻伤)人数、转移安置指标(转移安置人数×平均安置时间)等灾情指标,给出自然灾害等级划分方案,初步建立统一的自然灾害灾度计算模型,通过具体灾例验证本模型适用于地震、洪涝和台风等灾害的等级评定;在此基础上给出灾度计算模型的一般表达式,并将其推广应用到人为灾害(如生产安全事故等)的分级与评价;讨论目前生产安全事故等级评价标准的不足之处,选取死亡人数、重伤人数、轻伤人数、直接经济损失相对值等灾情指标,给出适用于生产安全事故的等级划分方案、灾度计算模型及等级评定工作流程,通过典型生产安全事故等级评定验证了模型的合理性。本文给出的灾害等级划分方案可扩充性好,灾度计算模型有严格的数学推导,具有统一的形式,灾度值受单项评级最高的损失指标控制,并考虑其他损失指标的贡献。对不同的灾害类型,即使选用的损失指标类型和数量不同,也能进行统一的灾害等级评定和比较。本文的灾度模型可视为修正的“或模型”,能考虑多个损失指标的影响和贡献。对自然灾害的灾情统计建议:加强受伤(重伤+轻伤)人员分类统计、转移安置人数及时长的分类统计,以更好地反映自然灾害损失大小、影响程度及范围。Disaster(natural and man-made)severity assessment plays a crucial role in effective disaster classification and management.This article introduces a methodology for assessing disaster severity using various indicators such as the relative value of direct economic losses,casualties,injuries(=serious+minor),and relocation indicators(=number of resettlement population×Average resettlement time).A unified natural disaster magnitude calculation model is proposed and demonstrated using specific examples of earthquakes,floods,and typhoons.Furthermore,the model is extended to assess the severity of man-made disasters,particularly production safety accidents.The article discusses the limitations of current severity classification standards for such accidents and presents a tailored severity classification scheme,magnitude calculation model,and workflow.The proposed model is rigorously derived mathematically and offers a unified framework controlled by the highest loss indicator while considering contributions from other indicators.Moreover,it allows for scalable and comprehensive disaster severity assessment across different disaster types.Suggestions are provided to enhance the statistics of injuries and resettlement populations for natural disasters,ensuring a more accurate reflection of the disaster s impact and scope.

关 键 词：自然灾害 人为灾害 灾度 灾害等级 直接经济损失 转移安置指标生产安全事故 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]