变化环境下汉江流域水循环要素响应规律  

Response Law of Water Cycle Elements in Hanjiang River Basin under Changing Environment

作　　者：王暄宇 顾文权[1] 胡雅洁 邵东国[1] WANG Xuan-yu;GU Wen-quan;HU Ya-jie;SHAO Dong-guo(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China;Changjiang Survey,Planning,Design and Research Co.Ltd,Wuhan 430010,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第7期35-44,共10页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金重点支持项目(U21A20156)。

摘　　要：汉江是长江第一大支流,也是南水北调中线工程和引汉济渭工程的水源地,具有重要的战略地位,科学评估气候变化和人类活动等变化环境下其水循环的响应,对流域水资源的可持续利用和制定适宜的管理政策有着重要意义。本文以汉江流域为研究区域构建了校准后的VIC分布式水文模型,随后基于降尺度后的全球气候模式数据和不同时期土地覆盖遥感数据设置不同情景的模拟,全面分析变化环境下流域水循环要素响应规律,并量化了气候变化和土地利用对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:不同气候变化情景下,年均降水中上游增加显著,年内降水更加集中于夏秋季节丰水期,各月实际蒸散发整体增加且年内分布更加均匀化;丹江口入库流量和流域出口断面流量在RCP8.5情景呈显著增加趋势,流域年内枯水期流量减少,丰水期流量全年占比最大增加了8.51%,未来月流量更加集中于丰水期,发生干旱和洪涝灾害的概率将会增加。汉江流域的部分稀树草原和有林地在21世纪以来转化为郁闭度更高的落叶阔叶林,土地利用的变化没有使得流量的年际变化趋势有较大改变,但使得流量整体降低了。不同时期气候变化和土地利用对丹江口入库流量变化的贡献率分别为80%~88%和12%~20%,对流域出口断面流量变化的贡献率分别为72%~88%和12%~28%,气候变化是汉江流域径流变化的主要驱动力。The Hanjiang River is the largest tributary of the Yangtze River and also the water source of the Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the Hanjiang-To-Weihe River Water Transfer Project.It has an important strategic position.Scientifically assessing the response of its water cycle under changing environments such as climate change and human activities is of great significance for the sustainable use of water resources in the basin and the formulation of appropriate management policies.In this paper,a calibrated VIC distributed hydrological model was constructed with the Hanjiang River Basin as the research area.Then,based on the downscaled global cli⁃mate model data and land cover remote sensing data in different periods,different scenarios were simulated to comprehensively analyze the response law of water cycle elements in the basin under changing environment,and quantify the contribution rate of climate change and land use to runoff changes.The results show that under different climate change scenarios,the average annual precipitation in the middle and up⁃per reaches will increase significantly,and the precipitation during the year will be more concentrated in the wet season of summer and autumn. The actual evapotranspiration in each month will increase as a whole and the distribution within the year will be more uniform. The in⁃flow of Danjiangkou reservoir and the runoff at the outlet section of the basin will show a significant increasing trend in RCP8.5 scenario. Theflow in the dry season of the basin will decrease during the year, and the annual proportion of flow in the wet season will increase by a maxi⁃mum of 8.51%. The future monthly flow will be more concentrated in the wet season. And the probability of drought and flood disasters will in⁃crease. Some savannas and woodlands in the Hanjiang River Basin have been transformed into deciduous broad-leaved forests with highercanopy density since the 21 st century. Land use change has not significantly changed the in

关 键 词：汉江流域 水循环要素 气候变化 土地利用 VIC模型 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]