基于变权重非线性安全度的梯级防洪库容分配方法研究  

Research on Cascade Flood Control Reservoir Capacity Allocation Method Based on Variable Weight Nonlinear Safety Degree

作　　者：劳嘉鹏 李英海[1,2] 王永强[3] 曾志强 余果 LAO Jia-peng;LI Ying-hai;WANG Yong-qiang;ZENG Zhi-qiang;YU Guo(College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China;Water Resources Department,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,Hubei Province,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science,China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443000,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [3]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,湖北武汉430010 [4]智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室(中国长江电力股份有限公司),湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2024年第7期45-52,59,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：长江科学院开放研究基金项目(CKWV2021889/KY);国家自然科学基金项目(52179018);智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室开放基金(242202000903)。

摘　　要：梯级水库群防洪库容的合理分配与有效利用对汛期水库群防洪减灾和综合效益的发挥起到至关重要的作用。针对梯级水库在防洪库容分配过程中,各水库对整体防洪安全影响的重要程度差异性缺乏有效区分方法,进而导致防洪库容分配不合理的问题,将水库非线性安全度与兼顾水库入库流量、设计防洪库容大小、泄流至防洪控制站传播时间等特征的变权重相结合,提出基于变权重非线性安全度的水库防洪安全度计算方法,同时,考虑梯级各水库和下游防洪控制站的安全,以梯级整体防洪安全度最大和下游防洪控制站超标洪量最小为目标,构建基于安全度的梯级防洪库容优化分配模型,采用差分进化算法对模型进行求解,实现防洪库容的最优分配。将该方法应用于金沙江下游乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡、向家坝四库梯级防洪库容分配实例,结果表明该方法相较于其他方法,可在不降低梯级整体防洪效果的前提下,描述各水库权重的动态变化过程,通过增加乌东德和白鹤滩水库防洪库容的使用,以减小溪洛渡和向家坝水库防洪库容的使用,使梯级整体在调度期的防洪安全度达到最大。该方法可反映各水库在梯级防洪中重要程度的差异性,实现水库间防洪库容的科学管理与合理分配,为水库防洪优化调度科学决策提供依据。The rational allocation and effective utilization of flood control storage capacity of cascade reservoirs play a crucial role in flood control and disaster reduction and comprehensive benefits of reservoirs in flood season.Aiming at the problem that there is no effective meth⁃od to distinguish the importance of each reservoir on the overall flood control safety in the process of flood control capacity allocation of cas⁃cade reservoirs,which leads to the unreasonable allocation of flood control capacity,this paper combines the nonlinear safety degree of reser⁃voirs with the variable weight considering the characteristics of reservoir inflow,design flood control capacity and propagation time from dis⁃charge to flood control station,and proposes a calculation method of reservoir flood control safety degree based on variable weight nonlinear safety degree.At the same time,considering the safety of cascade reservoirs and downstream flood control stations,the goal is to maximize the overall flood control safety degree of cascades and minimize the excessive flood volume of downstream flood control stations.The optimal allocation model of cascade flood control capacity based on safety degree is constructed,and the differential evolution algorithm is used to solve the model to realize the optimal allocation of flood control capacity.The method is applied to the allocation of flood control capacity of cascade reservoirs in Wudongde,Baihetan,Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba reservoirs in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River.The results show that compared with other methods,this method can describe the dynamic change process of the weight of each reservoir without reducing the over⁃all flood control effect of the cascade.By increasing the use of flood control capacity of Wudongde and Baihetan reservoirs,the use of flood control capacity of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba reservoirs is reduced,and the flood control safety of the cascade as a whole during the scheduling period is maximized.This method can reflect the differences in th

关 键 词：防洪库容分配 非线性安全度 变权重 梯级水库 金沙江下游 

分 类 号：TV-697.1[水利工程]