基于生命周期碳排放和总拥有成本的公交车队更新优化  

Bus fleet replacement optimization considering life-cycle carbon emissions and total cost of ownership

作　　者：沈金星[1] 刘沁鑫 郑长江[1] 刘坤 马昌喜[2] Shen Jinxing;Liu Qinxin;Zheng Changjiang;Liu Kun;Ma Changxi(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,南京210098 [2]兰州交通大学交通与运输学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》2024年第2期185-192,共8页东南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52062027)。

摘　　要：为探索电能和氢能源作为常规公交替代燃料的优势和潜力,确定公交车队更新时序的优化方案,从生命周期的角度综合考虑碳排放和总拥有成本的影响,提出了一种混合整数规划模型.基于柴油、天然气、油电混合、纯电动和氢燃料电池5种动力类型公交的运营数据,分析了电力结构、制氢方式、车辆购置成本和氢能源使用成本的不确定性对车队更新方案的影响.结果表明:电动公交车是当前公交车队更新的最佳选择;在现有的车辆技术水平和制氢方式情景下,不宜选择氢燃料电池公交;在蓝氢或绿氢得到大规模商业化之前,不建议通过财政补贴的方式全面推广氢燃料电池公交;采用该方法可以在不同情景和预期目标下确定公交车队的更新优化方案,促进绿色可持续发展.To explore the benefits and potential of electricity and hydrogen as alternative fuels for regular buses,a mixed-integer planning model was constructed to determine the schedule optimization scheme for bus fleet replacement.The model was based on the comprehensive analysis of carbon emissions and the total cost of ownership from a life cycle perspective.Using actual operational data of buses powered by diesel,natural gas,hybrid,plug-in electric,and hydrogen fuel cells,the effects of uncertainty in the power mix,acquisition cost,hydrogen production,and hydrogen usage cost on the fleet replacement schedule were explored.The results reveal that plug-in electric buses are currently the optimal choice for bus fleet replacement.Given the current level of vehicle technology and hydrogen production,hydrogen fuel cell buses(HFCEBs)are advisable during bus fleet replacement.Until the production of blue or green hydrogen becomes commercially viable,promoting HFCEBs on a large scale by extending financial subsidies is not recommended.The proposed method can help authorities identify optimized bus fleet replacement options under specific constraints and desired objectives to promote green and sustainable development.

关 键 词：公交车队更新 生命周期碳排放 总拥有成本 混合整数规划 替代燃料 电动公交 氢燃料电池公交 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]