大坝风险分析研究述评与展望  

Review and prospects of dam risk analysis research

作　　者：孙向军 SUN Xiangjun(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏南京210024 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2024年第7期1-9,37,共10页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：全球气候及国际局势环境的变化,对大坝安全构成了新的挑战。近年来大量学者就大坝风险分析及管理开展了一系列研究。目前,大坝风险研究以中小型坝为主,对溃坝失事风险研究最多;大坝风险识别主要是依赖专家经验的定性评估方法;在失事后果评估方面,集中于溃坝事件的生命损失估算;大坝风险分析多提前假定不确定性随机变量的分布型式,并多以失事概率描述风险的不确定性。基于风险与韧性的内涵关系及当前防灾减灾领域的新趋势,大坝风险研究亟须迈入大坝韧性研究,大坝韧性分析是大坝风险分析的延伸与拓展。基于土石坝韧性特点,笔者大胆构思了“土石坝韧性时空演化分析及韧性提升”的初步研究框架,并介绍了可采用的数学工具。The changing global climate and international environmental conditions pose new challenges to dam safety.In recent years,numerous scholars have conducted a series of studies on dam risk analysis and management.Currently,the focus of dam risk lies mainly on small to medium-sized dams,with most research concentrating on the risk of dam breaches and disasters.Dam risk identification primarily relies on qualitative assessment methods based on expert experience.Regarding the assessment of post-disaster consequences,there is a concentration on estimating the loss of life in dam breach events.Dam risk analysis often assumes the distribution pattern of uncertain stochastic variables in advance and describes risk uncertainty mostly in terms of failure probability.Given the inherent relationship between risk and resilience and the emerging trends in disaster prevention and reduction,it is imperative for dam risk research to transition into dam resilience research.Dam resilience analysis is an extension and expansion of dam risk analysis.Based on the characteristics of resilience in earth-rock dams,the author has boldly outlined a preliminary research framework for“Temporal and Spatial Evolution Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Resilience and Resilience Enhancement”,and introduced applicable mathematical tools.

关 键 词：文献计量 不确定性分析 动力系统 韧性提升 

分 类 号：TV52[水利工程—水利水电工程]