区域港口网络韧性对海洋经济高质量发展的支撑力  

Regional Port Network Resilience and Its Support for High-Quality Development of the Marine Economy

作　　者：常文千 李南 甄翠敏 张思琪 CHANG Wen-qian;LI Nan;ZHEN Cui-min;ZHANG Si-qi(College of Economics and Management,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China;College of Digital Economy and Management,Suzhou City University,Suzhou Jiangsu 215104,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学经济管理学院,河北唐山063210 [2]苏州城市学院数字经济与管理学院,江苏苏州215104

出　　处：《华北理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第4期13-21,共9页Journal of North China University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：河北省省属高等学校基本科研业务费研究项目“区域港口网络韧性研究-基于投影相关性和动态空间马尔科夫链”(JSQ2023012)。

摘　　要：为了减少经济危机、流行疾病、生态灾难和安全事故等破坏性事件对海洋经济高质量发展的影响,以及评估体制机制创新的作用,区域港口网络韧性的支撑力研究至关重要。以京津冀都市圈为例,利用投影相关性指数量化区域港口网络韧性对海洋经济高质量发展的支撑力,在空间滞后的动态马尔科夫链模型框架下区分支撑力状态转移的动态影响因子与空间差异。结果表明:(1)金融危机类事件对韧性支撑力有极化作用,即枢纽港的路径突破和支线港的退化。(2)流行疾病类事件使韧性支撑力向退化转移,制约路径突破的发生,落入弱势路径依赖。(3)机制体制创新表现出差异性,整体抑制支撑力退化,个体上维持国际枢纽港的强势路径依赖和支线港口的弱势路径依赖。To reduce the impact of disruptive events such as economic crises,epidemics,ecological disasters and safety accidents on the high-quality development of the Marine economy,and to assess the role of institutional innovation,it is essential to study the supporting force of the resilience of regional port networks.Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area as an example,the projection correlation index is used to quantify the supporting force of regional port network resilience on the high-quality development of Marine economy,and the dynamic influencing factors and spatial differences of the state shift of supporting force are distinguished under the framework of dynamic Markov chain model with spatial lag.The results show that:(1)financial crisis-like events make a polarizing effect on the resilience,that is,the path breakthrough of hub ports and the degradation of feeder ports.(2)Epidemic disease events shift the resilience support to degradation,restrict the occurrence of path breakthrough,and fall into the weak path dependence.(3)The performance of institutional innovation shows differences,the overall suppression of supporting force presents degradation,and the individual maintains the strong path dependence of international hub ports and the weak path dependence of branch ports.

关 键 词：海洋经济 港口网络 韧性 空间马尔科夫链 投影相关性 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]