无人机物流城市末端配送需求关键影响因素探索  

Exploration of Key Influencing Factors of Demand for Drone Logistics Urban Last-mile Delivery

作　　者：沈丹阳[1] 程钰洁 SHEN Danyang;CHENG Yujie(School of Transportation Science&Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第5期13-24,共12页Logistics Technology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“多机场航空物流系统理论与实践发展研究”(23FJYB042)。

摘　　要：无人机物流城市末端配送(DLULD)能有效解决传统末端配送存在的问题,更好地满足消费者需求。然而,DLULD需求受哪些因素影响,关键因素间的逻辑尚不清晰,直接限制了具体业务的推广与改进。通过文献研究构建需求影响因素指标体系,并首次将决策实验室-综合对抗解释结构模型引入DLULD研究,分析因素间关系与层级结构,找到提升DLULD服务的关键抓手,有助于物流业整体降本增效。结果表明:需求受到顶层、中间层和底层三层因素共同作用,并应重点关注服务可靠性、努力期望、绩效期望、交付风险和体积五个关键因素。据此提出,DLULD应从建立健全管理机制、把控运输风险,推动无人机技术持续发展、提高公众认知度,加强智能化水平建设、实现数字化管理等方面进行优化。As proposed in the 2024 Government Work Report,new growth engines such as biomanufacturing,commercial aerospace,and low-altitude economy,etc.should be actively created.As an important part of the low-altitude economy,drones are widely used in logistics and transportation activities in various scenarios such as cities,rural areas,mountainous areas,forests,and islands,etc.Drone Logistics Urban Last mile Delivery(DLULD)refers to the use of small-sized drone systems in low-altitude urban airspace to deliver goods from distribution centers to customers following planned routes,which can effectively solve the problems existing in traditional last-mile delivery and better meet consumer needs.However,the opacity of the factors affecting the demand for DLULD and the logic between the key factors directly limits the promotion and improvement of specific businesses.Therefore,studying the key influencing factors of DLULD and finding the key purchases to improve DLULD services will help the logistics industry as a whole reduce costs and increase efficiency,and have practical significance for promoting the development of unmanned last mile delivery.In this paper,through literature research and using the Delphi method,we determined the index system of the factors affecting the demand for DLULD,introduced the decision laboratory/comprehensive adversarial interpretive structural model to construct the comprehensive adversarial structural model of the factors affecting the demand for DLULD,explored the key factors and their interrelationships,and revealed the hierarchy of the factors.The study found that the comprehensive adversarial interpretive structural model of the factors have three layers,i.e.,the top layer,middle layer and bottom layer.Among them,performance expectation,as a bottom layer factor,acts on effort expectation,a middle layer factor;effort expectation and volume,as middle layer factors,indirectly affect demand by acting on top layer factors;top layer factors including delivery risk and service reliability directl

关 键 词：无人机物流 末端配送 城市配送 需求关键影响因素 决策实验室-综合对抗解释结构模型 

分 类 号：F259.2[经济管理—国民经济]