Improved LS+MAR hybrid method to UT1-UTC ultra-short-term prediction by using first-order-difference UT1-UTC  

作　　者：Fei Ye Yunbin Yuan 

机构地区：[1]BeiDou High-precision Satellite Navigation and Location Service Hunan Engineering Research Center,Hunan Institute of Geomatics Sciences and Technology,Changsha410007,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics,Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Wuhan430077,China [3]HNCORS Data Center,Hunan Institute of Geomatics Sciences and Technology,Changsha 410007,China

出　　处：《Geodesy and Geodynamics》2024年第4期379-385,共7页大地测量与地球动力学（英文版）

基　　金：supported by China Natural Science Fund,China(No.42004016);the science and technology innovation Program of Hunan Province,China(No.2023RC3217);Research Foundation of the Department of Natural Resources of Hunan Province(Grant No:20240105CH);HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329).

摘　　要：Accurate ultra-short-term prediction of the Earth rotation parameters(ERP)holds paramount impor-tance for real-time applications,particularly in reference frame conversion.Among them,diurnal rota-tion(UT1-UTC)which cannot be directly estimated through Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)techniques,significantly affects the rapid and ultra-rapid orbit determination of GNsS satellites.Pres-ently,the traditional LS(least squares)+AR(autoregressive)and LS+MAR(multivariate autoregressive)hybrid methods stand as primary approaches for UT1-UTC ultra-short-term predictions(1-10 days).The LS+MAR hybrid method relies on the UT1-UTC and LOD(length of day)series.However,the correlation between LOD and first-order-difference UT1-UTC is stronger than that between LOD and UT1-UTC.In light of this,and with the aid of the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,we propose an enhanced LS+MAR hybrid method to UT1-UTC ultra-short-term prediction.By using the UT1-UTC and LOD data series of the IERS(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service)EOP 14 C04 product,we conducted a thorough analysis and evaluation of the improved method's prediction performance compared to the traditional LS+AR and LS+MAR hybrid methods.According to the numerical results over more than 210 days,they demonstrate that,when considering the correlation information between the LoD and the first-order-difference UT1-UTC,the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of the improved LS+MAR hybrid method range from 21 to 934μs in 1-10 days predictions.In comparison to the traditional LS+AR hybrid method,the MAEs show a reduction of 7-53μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 1 to 28%.Similarly,when compared to the traditional LS+MAR hybrid method,the MAEs have a reduction of 5-42μs in 1-10 days predictions,with corresponding improvement percentages ranging from 4-20%.Additionally,when aided by GNSS-derived LOD data series,the MAEs of improved LS+MAR hybrid method experience further reduction.

关 键 词：UT1-UTCultra-short-termprediction Rapidandultra-rapidproducts LS+AR and LS+MAR CORRELATION First-order-differenceUT1-UTC 

分 类 号：P228.4[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]