信息基础设施建设、养殖主体分化与生猪价格波动——基于多期双重差分模型的分析  

Information infrastructure construction,differentiation of breeding entities and price fluctuation of pigs——Analysis based on multi-period difference-in-difference model

作　　者：王刚毅[1] 桂雪梅 李春雷 WANG Gang-yi;GUI Xue-mei;LI Chun-lei(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150030)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《价格月刊》2024年第7期9-17,共9页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国生猪种质资源继承保护、创新开发与惠益分享研究”(编号:22BJY084);教育部人文社科一般项目“中国生猪遗传资源保护与利用研究:组织、效率与创新”(编号:21YJA790053);重庆市“重庆英才计划”包干制项目“生猪产业安全边界识别、驱动因素和升级路径研究”(编号:2021YC002);黑龙江省经济社会发展重点项目,“玉米种质资源保护利用体系中的继承与创新机制研究”(编号:22560)。

摘　　要：长期以来,中国生猪价格呈现出周期性波动的显著特征。然而,信息对生猪价格波动产生的具体影响尚待深入探究。基于2011—2018年的省级面板数据,借助“宽带中国”战略这一自然实验设定,实证检验了信息基础设施建设对生猪价格波动的影响及作用机制。研究结果显示,信息基础设施建设是生猪价格波动的重要影响因素之一。随着信息基础设施建设水平的提升,养殖户对生猪价格的反应敏感性增强,且信息基础设施建设对生猪价格波动的影响呈现出加速的非线性特征。进一步的调节效应分析显示,养殖主体的分化现象加剧了信息基础设施建设对生猪价格波动的影响。异质性分析则发现,信息基础设施建设主要引发生猪价格的整体大幅波动和负向大幅波动,而对生猪价格的小幅波动和正向大幅波动的影响并不显著。基于上述研究结果,提出为养殖户提供风险管理工具等针对性的建议。For a long time,China’s pig prices have shown significant cyclical fluctuations.However,the specific impact of information on the price fluctuations of pigs needs to be further explored.Based on the provincial panel data from 2011 to 2018,and with the help of the Broadband China Strategy as a natural experimental setting,this paper empirically tests the impact of information infrastructure construction on the price fluctuation of pigs and its mechanism.The results show that the construction of information infrastructure is one of the important factors affecting the price fluctuation of pigs.With the improvement of information infrastructure construction,farmers are more sensitive to pig prices,and the impact of information infrastructure construction on the price fluctuation of pigs shows an accelerated non-linear characteristic.Further analysis of the regulatory effects show that the differentiation of breeding entities intensifies the impact of information infrastructure construction on the price fluctuation of pigs.Heterogeneity analysis finds that the construction of information infrastructure mainly leads to significant overall and negative fluctuations in pig prices,but has no significant impact on small fluctuations and significant positive fluctuations in pig prices.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward some specific suggestions such as providing risk management tools for farmers.

关 键 词：信息基础设施建设 “宽带中国” 生猪价格波动 养殖主体分化 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]