扩员后金砖国家能源贸易安全网络体系构建与思考  

Construction and thinking of BRICS energy trade security network system after membership expansion

作　　者：王霞[1] 张嘉曦 WANG Xia;ZHANG Jia-xi(School of International Economics and Trade,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学国际经贸学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《价格月刊》2024年第7期68-78,共11页

基　　金：2024年度新疆维吾尔自治区人文社会科学重点研究基地招标课题“中国(新疆)与周边国家外贸高质量发展水平测度与提升路径研究”(编号:XJEDU2024J104)。

摘　　要：自2020年以来,全球能源格局在各方因素影响下进入前所未有的变革时期。随着全球能源博弈、能源贸易风险不断加剧,金砖国家的能源安全问题将迎来极大挑战。因此,寻求能够提升各国能源贸易安全的有效途径是金砖国家当前亟须解决的问题。首先,选取金砖国家扩员后的2005—2021年面板数据,从生产储备安全、贸易安全、网络及传输安全、消费安全、可持续性等5个维度构建能源安全评价体系,通过组合熵权法和双基点法两种工具法,测算出各国能源安全水平的相对贴近度,并进行排序。其次,结合当前国际局势,进一步设计了金砖国家能源贸易安全预警机制,对金砖国家未来能源贸易趋势进行预测,并通过增加金砖国家间的能源贸易比重来规避外部风险。最后,提出金砖国家能源贸易安全水平可以从选定区域能源中心国、构建能源贸易安全预警机制两种方案进行实施。Since 2020,the global energy pattern has entered an unprecedented period of transformation under the influence of various factors.As the global energy game and energy trade risks continue to be aggravated,the energy security issues of BRICS countries will face great challenges.Therefore,it is urgent for BRICS countries to find effective ways to enhance the security of energy trade.First,this paper selects the panel data of BRICS countries after membership expansion from 2005 to 2021,constructs an energy security evaluation system from five dimensions:production reserve security,trade security,network and transmission security,consumption security,and sustainability,and calculates the relative closeness of energy security level of each country through two tool methods:combined entropy weight method and TOPSIS method,and then ranks them.Secondly,based on the current international situation,this paper further designs the BRICS energy trade security early warning mechanism,predicts the future energy trade trend of BRICS countries,and avoids external risks by increasing the proportion of energy trade among BRICS countries.Finally,this paper proposes that the energy trade security level of BRICS countries can be implemented by selecting regional energy center countries and building energy trade security early warning mechanism.

关 键 词：金砖扩容 能源贸易安全 熵权TOPSIS法 预警体系 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]