基于随机森林模型的右转车与非机动车冲突风险影响因素研究  

A Study on the Influencing Factors of Conflict Risk between Right Turning Vehicles and Non motorized Vehicles——Based on Random Forest Model

作　　者：黄士倩 周旦 顾国斌 杨瑞新 赵振忠 陈建球 Huang Shiqian;Zhou Dan;Gu Guobin;Yang Ruixin;Zhao Zhenzhong;Chen Jianqiu

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学建筑与交通工程学院,广西桂林541004 [2]南宁学院广西中国-东盟综合交通国际联合重点实验室,广西南宁530000

出　　处：《时代汽车》2024年第14期182-184,198,共4页Auto Time

基　　金：大学生创新训练计划立项项目(S202210595279);2021年度广西中国-东盟综合交通国际联合重点实验室运行补助项目(21-220-21);南宁市科学研究与技术开发计划项目(20223230)。

摘　　要：为分析车速、周期、冲突位置,以及交通量等因素对城市平面交叉口交通冲突的影响,从机动车特性、非机动车特性、交叉口特性三方面初选21个影响因素,选取南宁市桂林市4个典型平面交叉口进行实地调研,记录右转机动车与非机动车之间345条交通冲突数据作为分析样本,采用随机森林法分析城市交叉口右转车与非机动车风险构成要素间的致因及其显著性。研究结果表明:在城市交叉口中右转车与非机动车速度、各进口道周期、绿灯时长、交通量越大,发生冲突的概率越大;当机非冲突位置在交叉口中时,冲突的发生概率越大,应加强右转车在交叉口与非机动车转弯的安全风险防控。To analyze the impact of factors such as vehicle speed,cycle,conflict location,and traffic volume on traffic conflicts at urban level intersections,21 influencing factors were initially selected from three aspects:motor vehicle characteristics,non motor vehicle characteristics,and intersection characteristics.Four typical level intersections in Guilin,Nanning were selected for field research,and 345 traffic conflict data between right turning motor vehicles and non motor vehicles were recorded as analysis samples,Using the random forest method to analyze the causes and significance of the risk components between right turn vehicles and non motorized vehicles at urban intersections.The research results indicate that the higher the speed of right turning vehicles and non motorized vehicles,the cycle of each entrance,the duration of green lights,and the traffic volume at urban intersections,the greater the probability of conflicts occurring;When the non conflicting position of the aircraft is in the intersection,the probability of conflict occurring is higher.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the safety risk prevention and control of right turning vehicles turning with non motorized vehicles at the intersection.

关 键 词：机非冲突 影响因素 随机森林 交通安全 

分 类 号：U49[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]