新发传染病早期疫情趋势及疫苗干预传染病动力学模型研究  

Infectious disease modelling study of early epidemiological trends and vaccine interventionsin emerging infectious diseases

作　　者：刘豪梁 李朝荷 白文清 谷玥 李慧敏 张佳艺 周蕾 LIU Haoliang;LI Zhaohe;BAI Wenqing;GU Yue;LI Huimin;ZHANG Jiayi;ZHOU Lei(School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211166,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》2024年第3期185-188,共4页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71934002)。

摘　　要：目的 构建传染病动力学模型,模拟新发传染病疫情早期流行趋势,评估不同情境下疫苗因素对早期疫情进展的影响,为暴发或大流行疫情早期应对策略,尤其是疫苗干预策略提供理论基础。方法 通过文献检索、贝叶斯推断和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗算法(MCMC)确定关键参数,建立传染病动力学模型,并运用构建好的模型模拟疫苗在不同情境下的作用。结果 本研究构建的SAPHIREV模型拟合曲线能较好地反映原始疫情的流行趋势,通过情景模拟,假设疫苗效力为ρ=0.36,分别以v=15 000/d、v=95 000/d及v=140 000/d的速度进行接种,疫情规模分别下降18.04%、66.10%、74.23%。假设ρ提高至0.8,以v=95 000/d的速度进行接种,疫情规模变化不大,但会使确诊病例归零时间提前。结论 在面对新发传染病时,早期制定疫苗策略、研发高效疫苗、重视应急准备工作是控制疫情的关键措施。Objective To construct a kinetic model of infectious diseases to simulate the early epidemic trend of emerging infectious diseases,and to evaluate the impact of vaccine factors on the early epidemic progress in different scenarios,so as to provide a theoretical basis for early response strategies to outbreaks or pandemics,especially vaccine intervention strategies.Methods The key parameters were determined through literature retrieval,Bayesian inference,and Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm(MCMC)to establish the kinetic model of infectious diseases,and the constructed model was used to simulate the role of vaccines in different scenarios.Results The fitting curve of the SAPHIREV model constructed in this study can better reflect the epidemic trend of the original epidemic.Through scenario simulation,assuming that the vaccine efficacy(p)is 0.36,and the vaccination rate is 15000/day,95000/day and 140000/day,the epidemic scale decreases by 18.04%,66.10%and 74.23%,respectively.Assuming that p increased to 0.8,and the vaccination rate is 95000/day,the epidemic scale changes little,but the time of returning to zero of confirmed cases is advanced.Conclusion In the face of emerging infectious diseases,early formulation of vaccine strategies,development of high-ficiency vaccines,and emphasis on emergency preparedness are key measures to control the epidemic.

关 键 词：SEIR模型 情景构建 参数估计 干预策略 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学]