Poverty Volatility and Tax Revenue Instability in Developing Countries  

作　　者：Sèna Kimm Gnangnon 

机构地区：[1]World Trade Organization,Rue de Lausanne 154,CH-1211,Geneva 21,Switzerland

出　　处：《Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences》2024年第2期279-311,共33页复旦人文社会科学论丛（英文版）

摘　　要：This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth.

关 键 词：Poverty volatility Poverty rates External shocks Tax revenue instability 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]