降水对新疆维吾尔自治区北天山长尾黄鼠动物鼠疫影响的研究  

Effects of precipitation on epizootic plague among Spermophilus undulatus at the northern Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China

作　　者：孙静 魏文宇 詹尚 李芳[1] 赵国玉[2] 王启果[2] 雒涛[2] 吴海燕 张渝疆 SUN Jing;WEI Wen-yu;ZHAN Shang;LI Fang;ZHAO Guo-yu;WANG Qi-guo;LUO Tao;WU Hai-yan;ZHANG Yu-jiang(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830054,China;Disinfection and Infection Control Center/Institute for Emergency Rodent Control,Xinjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Vector-borne Infectious Diseases,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学公共卫生学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心消毒与感染控制中心/应急鼠防所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆病媒传染病重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2024年第3期323-328,共6页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81960369);国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1200101)。

摘　　要：目的探讨降水对新疆维吾尔自治区北天山长尾黄鼠鼠疫传播媒介及其动物鼠疫流行的影响。方法采用Spearman秩相关分析和广义可加模型(GAM)分析降水量对长尾黄鼠鼠疫传播媒介和动物鼠疫流行的影响,以及媒介与鼠疫流行的效应关系。结果当年和前1年年降水量、春末夏秋和秋末冬春降水量均与长尾黄鼠蚤指数和鼠疫血清阳性率呈负相关,其中前1年年降水量、前1年春末夏秋降水量与蚤指数相关关系均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),当年年降水量、前1年年降水量、当年春末夏秋降水量、当年和前1年秋末冬春降水量与鼠疫F1抗体阳性率相关关系均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。蚤指数、染蚤率与鼠疫血清阳性率呈正相关关系(r_(s)>0);前1年春末夏秋降水量对蚤指数呈非线性关系,当年和前1年秋末冬春降水量均与鼠疫血清阳性率亦呈非线性关系,当年和前1年蚤指数均与鼠疫血清阳性率呈线性正相关。结论降水对长尾黄鼠蚤指数和动物鼠疫流行的影响是一个复杂的过程,表现为降水增多会抑制体蚤数量的增长,对鼠疫影响表现为先促进后抑制,并存在一定的滞后性。Objective To investigate the effects of precipitation on the plague vectors and plague prevalence situation of Spermophilus undulatus at the northern Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang).Methods The effects of precipitation on S.undulatus-associated plague vectors and plague prevalence,as well as the relationship between vectors and animal plague were analyzed through Spearman correlation analysis and generalized additive modeling.Results The current annual precipitation,the last spring-summer-autumn’precipitation,and the last autumn-winter-spring’precipitation were negatively correlated with the flea index and plague seroprevalence rate of S.undulatus.Among them,the correlations between the last annual precipitation and flea index,the last spring-summerautumn’s precipitation and flea index were statistically significant(all P<0.05),and the correlations between the current and the last annual precipitation,the current spring-summer-autumn’,the current and the last autumn-winter-spring’precipitation and the positive rate of F1 antibody to Yesinia pestis were all statistically significant(all P<0.05).The flea index and flea infestation rate were positively correlated with the plague seroprevalence rate(r_(s)>0).The last springsummer-autumn’precipitation had a nonlinear relationship with the flea index.Nonlinear relationships were also observed between the autumn-winter-spring’precipitation of the same year and the last year and plague seroprevalence rate.The flea index of the same year and that of the last year were linearly positively correlated with the plague seroprevalence rate.Conclusions The effects of precipitation on the flea index and plague prevalence of S.undulatus are complex.Increased precipitation can inhibit the growth of body flea populations,first promoting and then inhibiting plague epizootics,at a certain lag.

关 键 词：降水 鼠疫 蚤 长尾黄鼠 新疆 

分 类 号：R183[医药卫生—流行病学] R384.3[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]