Will fuel switching ever happened in China’s thermal power sector?The rule of carbon market design  

作　　者：Anqi HE Huarong PENG 

机构地区：[1]Wuhan University Institute for International Studies,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China [2]Climate Change and Energy Economics Study Center,Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430000,China [3]Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System by Ministry of Education and Hubei Provincial Government,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430200,China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Engineering Management》2024年第2期207-230,共24页工程管理前沿（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72304092);the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(Grant No.2022CFB605);the Department of Education of Hubei Province(Grant No.21Y179);the Youth Research Fund of Hubei University of Economics(Grant No.XJZD202302).

摘　　要：To assess the effectiveness of China’s emissions trading scheme(ETS)in facilitating energy structure optimization,we constructed a fuel-switching model utilizing data from 1067 generating units under the Chinese ETS framework.The model simulates the fuel-switching price in China’s thermal power sector,taking into account various allowance allocation strategies.The results show the following:1)Thermal power plants will transition from coal to gas if the current ETS auction rate surpasses 26%.2)Furthermore,in scenarios where the ETS operates independently,a transition will occur if the carbon allowance market is entirely auction-based and the carbon price attains 119.50 USD/tCO_(2).3)In a collaborative scenario involving both the ETS and a gas feed-in tariff subsidy,a carbon price of 9.39 USD/tCO_(2)will effect a transition from coal to gas,provided both the auction ratio and subsidy price are maximized.

关 键 词：ETS thermal power plant fuel switching allowance allocation method feed-in tariff subsidy 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.9[经济管理—产业经济] F426.61