基于系统动力学的城市应急物资动员潜力研究  

Research on the Potential of Urban Emergency Supplies Mobilization Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：王晓光 许振宇[2] WANG Xiaoguang;XU Zhenyu(School of Economy and Management,Xi’an Aeronautical Institute,Xi’an 710077,China;School of Pub-lic Administration(School of Emergency Management),Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西安航空学院经济管理学院,陕西西安710077 [2]西北大学公共管理学院(应急管理学院),陕西西安710127

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期30-35,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“城市社区应对重大公共危机事件的韧性治理机制研究”(23BZZ023)。

摘　　要：应急物资是政府应对各类突发事件的物质基础,应急物资动员潜力研究有利于了解和提高政府应对突发事件的应急物资保障能力。该文基于系统动力学和城市应对突发事件实际情况,以应急物资最终产品供给量来度量应急物资动员潜力,分析构成应急物资动员潜力的五个子模块提供应急物资的内在机理,并以实例进行数值模拟,仿真结果表明:政府的动员力度越大,应急物资供给增速越快;企事业单位储备量、居民的应急物资储备量对应急物资动员潜力的影响非常大;外来支援物资量受到社会组织募捐物资储备、其他地区受灾情况及社会关注度的影响,政府可以通过加大宣传力度来提高外来支援物资量。Emergency supplies are the material basis for responding to various emergencies.Research on the potential of emergency supplies mobilization is beneficial for understanding and improving the emergency supply ca⁃pabilities in response to emergencies.Based on system dynamics and the actual situation of urban response to emer⁃gencies,the potential of emergency supplies mobilization is measured by quantifying the final product supply of emergency supplies.The five sub-modules that constitute the potential of emergency supplies mobilization provid⁃ing insights into the underlying mechanisms of emergency supplies provision are analyzed.Numerical simulations are conducted by using examples,and the results show that the greater the mobilization effort the faster the growth rate of emergency supplies.The reserves of enterprises and institutions,as well as the reserves of emergency sup⁃plies by residents,have a significant impact on the potential of emergency supplies mobilization.The quantity of external support supplies is influenced by the reserves of donated supplies by social organizations,the disaster situ⁃ation in other regions and social awareness.Increasing publicity efforts can enhance the quantity of external support supplies.

关 键 词：系统动力学 应急物资 城市突发事件 动员潜力 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学] X43[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] X915.5[天文地球—地质学]