基于多准则决策方法的避难场所选址模型研究  

Emergency Shelter Locating Optimization Model Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Making

作　　者：赫磊[1] 解子昂 王培安 HE Lei;XIE Ziang;WANG Peian(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China.;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第3期160-166,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：上海市2021年度“科技创新行动计划”韧性城市防灾避难体系规划技术标准研究(21DZ2206500);国家重点研发计划“城市防灾设施系统失效级联机理与规划优化方法研究”(2020YFB2103901-2);国家自然科学基金面上项目城市防灾设施系统失效级联机理与规划优化方法研究(51778437)。

摘　　要：针对避难场所规划选址中的现实问题与需求,从方法易操作和可实施角度出发,构建了面向城市规划业务流程与工作实践的防灾避难场所选址模型。该模型基于多准则决策方法(MCDM),以避难场所选址的安全性和均好性为主要目标。模型综合考虑了人口密度、建筑质量、交通系统和避难场所设施配置四项选址影响因素,并采用AHP-熵权法确定影响要素权重。以江阴市为实证案例,套用模型经过两轮评估及编码者测试,最终明确了备选避难场所资源的优先建设排序,验证了模型的可行性与实用性。研究提出的影响要素和量化指标易于取得,打分方法便于操作,适用于城市规划阶段的避难场所规划选址与建设时序决策。A disaster mitigation emergency congregate shelter site selection model suitable for urban planning business processes and work practices is constructed from the perspective of ease of operation and implementability,in response to the practical problems and needs in the planning and selection of shelter sites.The model is based on the multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM),with the main objective of ensuring the safety and evenness of shelter site selection.It comprehensively considers four factors that affect the site selection as population density,building quality,transportation system,and shelter facility configuration.The AHP-entropy method is used to determine the weight of the influencing factors.Taking Jiangyin as an empirical case,the model is applied to clarify the priori⁃ty construction ranking of alternative shelter resources after double coding and coder testing,which verified the fea⁃sibility and practicality of the model.The influencing factors and quantitative indicators proposed in the study are easy to obtain,and the scoring method is easy to operate,which is suitable for the planning location and construc⁃tion timing decision of shelter in the urban planning stage.

关 键 词：避难场所 选址模型 多准则决策(MCDM) 城市规划 熵权法 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X45