贵州高原人口高龄化时空分异特征及影响因素  

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of population aging in Guizhou Plateau

作　　者：陈璇 李旭东[1] CHEN Xuan;LI Xudong(School of Geography&Environmental Science,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《贵州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期10-19,共10页Journal of Guizhou Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41261039)。

摘　　要：随着老龄化进程的快速发展,人口高龄化趋势日益显现。基于第五、第六和第七次人口普查数据,运用标准差椭圆和空间自相关等方法,分析贵州高原人口高龄化的时空分异特征,并利用地理探测器对影响因素进行探讨。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年高龄化水平大幅提升,高龄化类型以高龄型Ⅲ期为主,呈“凹”字的空间分布特征;年均变化量和变化率均不同程度增加,黔东南的增量和增长率明显大于其他县区。(2)标准差椭圆先向黔北再向黔东南方向偏移,椭圆面积先增大后减小,高龄化空间集聚程度先下降后上升。(3)高龄化有明显的空间关联性,形成以东南部高-高集聚区和北部低-低集聚区为主的空间集聚格局。(4)人口高龄化空间格局在特殊的自然环境下,社会经济保障的基础上,加之少数民族地区独特的生存环境、文化以及人口不同程度的自然和机械变动,使得贵州高原人口高龄化空间格局发生改变。With the rapid development of the aging process,the trend of population aging is becoming increasingly apparent.Based on the data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh population censuses,by using methods such as standard deviation ellipse and spatial autocorrelation,this study analyzes the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of population aging in the Guizhou Plateau.Additionally,it explores the influencing factors by using geographic detectors.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the level of aging in the Guizhou Plateau has significantly increased.The dominant type of aging is StageⅢ,and it exhibits a spatial distribution characterized by a"concave"shape.The average annual change and change rate have both increased to varying degrees,with Qian Dongnan showing a notably higher increment and growth rate compared to other counties and districts.(2)The standard deviation ellipse initially shifts from northern Guizhou to southeastern Guizhou,with the ellipse area increasing first and then decreasing.The spatial concentration of aging first decreases and then increases.(3)The aging population shows clear spatial correlation,forming a spatial clustering pattern dominated by high-high agglomeration areas in the southeast and low-low agglomeration areas in the north.(4)In the special natural environment of the Guizhou Plateau,coupled with the foundation of social and economic security,as well as the unique living conditions,culture,and various degrees of natural and demographic changes in ethnic minority areas,the spatial pattern of population aging in the Guizhou Plateau has undergone changes.

关 键 词：人口高龄化 时空分异 影响因素 地理探测器 贵州高原 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]